Justin Amash Might Be On His Way Out, as Cook Political Report Moves His Seat From "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican"

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Independent Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03), who defected from the GOP in July and voted for both articles of impeachment, said in November that he still plans to run for reelection. But Michigan's filing deadline for third parties isn't until July and the former Tea Party poster child could either continue running an uphill reelection bid in a three way race, seek the Libertarian nod for president or not run for anything at all.

The situation in Grand Rapids is unique, but Amash's impeachment stance (and the fact Democratic freshmen are even lobbying for him to serve as a manager in a Senate trial) complicates Democrats' math. Any path in 2020 probably involved Amash siphoning votes from the GOP nominee, reducing the threshold for victory. Now, Amash's anti-Trump posture seems more likely to split votes on the left.

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Either way, the math is tough for Democrats. As long as Amash stays in, he could split the anti-Trump vote, which is still likely to constitute a minority of voters in 2020. But if Amash doesn't seek reelection, Democrats could end up facing a self-funder (Langlois or Meijer) in a seat Trump carried by nearly ten points in 2016. For now, this seat moves from Toss Up to the Lean Republican column.

posted by Ace of Spades at 04:38 PM

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