Ace of Spades HQ

« Rand Paul's Annual Airing of Festivus Grievances | Main | Tucker Carlson Destroys Conservatism, Inc. for Selling Out Conservatives to Big Tech for Cash »

December 23, 2019

Justin Amash Might Be On His Way Out, as Cook Political Report Moves His Seat From "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican"

Learn to code.

Independent Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03), who defected from the GOP in July and voted for both articles of impeachment, said in November that he still plans to run for reelection. But Michigan's filing deadline for third parties isn't until July and the former Tea Party poster child could either continue running an uphill reelection bid in a three way race, seek the Libertarian nod for president or not run for anything at all.

The situation in Grand Rapids is unique, but Amash's impeachment stance (and the fact Democratic freshmen are even lobbying for him to serve as a manager in a Senate trial) complicates Democrats' math. Any path in 2020 probably involved Amash siphoning votes from the GOP nominee, reducing the threshold for victory. Now, Amash's anti-Trump posture seems more likely to split votes on the left.

..

Either way, the math is tough for Democrats. As long as Amash stays in, he could split the anti-Trump vote, which is still likely to constitute a minority of voters in 2020. But if Amash doesn't seek reelection, Democrats could end up facing a self-funder (Langlois or Meijer) in a seat Trump carried by nearly ten points in 2016. For now, this seat moves from Toss Up to the Lean Republican column.

posted by Ace of Spades at 04:38 PM

| Access Comments


Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact Ace: aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries A bold educational change in New Zealand The Classical Saturday Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 21 December 2024 Just The ONT, Ma'am Giant Animals Cafe Quick Hits Democrat Strategist Ruy Texiera: The Public Gave the Democrats a Clear Message About Their Rejection of Identity Marxism, But the Democrats Don't Want to Listen Kamala Harris To Be Offered $20 Million in a Media Payoff Disguised as an "Advance" on Book Royalties Plus: Media Makes Excuses for Covering Up Biden's Obvious Senility AGAIN: A Car Plows Through a German Christmas Market at a Very High Speed, Sending People Flying Like Bowling Pins, Killing an Unknown Number David Samuels: Barack Obama Created and Maintains an Echo Chamber Messaging System That Deranges and Perverts People's Thinking Every Day Absent Friends Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups	« Rand Paul's Annual Airing of Festivus Grievances \| Main \| Tucker Carlson Destroys Conservatism, Inc. for Selling Out Conservatives to Big Tech for Cash » December 23, 2019 Justin Amash Might Be On His Way Out, as Cook Political Report Moves His Seat From "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican" Learn to code. Independent Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03), who defected from the GOP in July and voted for both articles of impeachment, said in November that he still plans to run for reelection. But Michigan's filing deadline for third parties isn't until July and the former Tea Party poster child could either continue running an uphill reelection bid in a three way race, seek the Libertarian nod for president or not run for anything at all. The situation in Grand Rapids is unique, but Amash's impeachment stance (and the fact Democratic freshmen are even lobbying for him to serve as a manager in a Senate trial) complicates Democrats' math. Any path in 2020 probably involved Amash siphoning votes from the GOP nominee, reducing the threshold for victory. Now, Amash's anti-Trump posture seems more likely to split votes on the left. .. Either way, the math is tough for Democrats. As long as Amash stays in, he could split the anti-Trump vote, which is still likely to constitute a minority of voters in 2020. But if Amash doesn't seek reelection, Democrats could end up facing a self-funder (Langlois or Meijer) in a seat Trump carried by nearly ten points in 2016. For now, this seat moves from Toss Up to the Lean Republican column. posted by Ace of Spades at 04:38 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "Maral Salmassi @MaralSalmassi Despite claims made ..." jimmymcnulty: "Are Australian pizzas served upside down. Asking ..." Viggo Tarasov: "Hey, that tweezer thing can really pluck someone u ..." Eromero: "322 German police valiantly confiscating a Swiss A ..." Anna Puma: "BOLO Rowdy the kangaroo has jumped his fence an ..." fd: "You can't leave Islam. They won't let you. ..." [/b][/s][/u][/i]muldoon, astronomically challenged: "German police valiantly confiscating a Swiss Army ..." Cicero (@cicero43): "Hamas clearly recognises that when the cultural es ..." Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd: "The only way you can defend this position is to ei ..." Ciampino - See you don't solve it by banning guns: "303 BMW pretty low to ground ... at least it wasn ..." NaCly Dog: "I had a UPS package assigned to a woman in another ..." Dr. Not The 9 0'Clock News: "One high school history teacher I remember well, a ..." Recent Entries A bold educational change in New Zealand The Classical Saturday Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 21 December 2024 Just The ONT, Ma'am Giant Animals Cafe Quick Hits Democrat Strategist Ruy Texiera: The Public Gave the Democrats a Clear Message About Their Rejection of Identity Marxism, But the Democrats Don't Want to Listen Kamala Harris To Be Offered $20 Million in a Media Payoff Disguised as an "Advance" on Book Royalties Plus: Media Makes Excuses for Covering Up Biden's Obvious Senility AGAIN: A Car Plows Through a German Christmas Market at a Very High Speed, Sending People Flying Like Bowling Pins, Killing an Unknown Number David Samuels: Barack Obama Created and Maintains an Echo Chamber Messaging System That Deranges and Perverts People's Thinking Every Day Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64