Sponsored Content
Rand Paul's Annual Airing of Festivus Grievances | Main | Tucker Carlson Destroys Conservatism, Inc. for Selling Out Conservatives to Big Tech for Cash
December 23, 2019

Justin Amash Might Be On His Way Out, as Cook Political Report Moves His Seat From "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican"

Learn to code.

Independent Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03), who defected from the GOP in July and voted for both articles of impeachment, said in November that he still plans to run for reelection. But Michigan's filing deadline for third parties isn't until July and the former Tea Party poster child could either continue running an uphill reelection bid in a three way race, seek the Libertarian nod for president or not run for anything at all.

The situation in Grand Rapids is unique, but Amash's impeachment stance (and the fact Democratic freshmen are even lobbying for him to serve as a manager in a Senate trial) complicates Democrats' math. Any path in 2020 probably involved Amash siphoning votes from the GOP nominee, reducing the threshold for victory. Now, Amash's anti-Trump posture seems more likely to split votes on the left.

..

Either way, the math is tough for Democrats. As long as Amash stays in, he could split the anti-Trump vote, which is still likely to constitute a minority of voters in 2020. But if Amash doesn't seek reelection, Democrats could end up facing a self-funder (Langlois or Meijer) in a seat Trump carried by nearly ten points in 2016. For now, this seat moves from Toss Up to the Lean Republican column.


digg this
posted by Ace of Spades at 04:38 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
whig: "And he's dead. He knew too much. I don't know why ..."

...: "Is there a Male Delusion calculator? Posted by: ..."

Formerly Virginian: "This is because we encourage costless virtue signa ..."

eleven: "I like this JK Rowling person. ..."

Aetius451AD: "Fucking insane. ..."

Kindltot: "Scottish politics suffers from "Thatcher put Gramp ..."

Tex Lovera: "OUT: Define "woman" IN: Redefine "woman" ..."

Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden: "[i] Literally bumping uglies. Posted by: Minnfid ..."

Darrell Harris: "396 Remember, too, that Cindy Williams was in Ame ..."

torabora : "Orwell wrote 1984 on a near deserted Scottish isla ..."

Aetius451AD: "Yep, I grew up in the 80's with my dad listening t ..."

Reuben Hick: "[i]simply find it incredible that Epstein apparent ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64