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November 04, 2019

Friday's Jobs Report Unexpectedly Smashes Expectations; Job Numbers in Prior Months Unexpectedly Revised Upwards

This is from Friday morning, so it's late, but it's big news.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

There were big revisions of past numbers as well. August’s initial 168,000 payrolls addition was revised up to 219,000, while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.

The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 3.6% from 3.5%, still near the lowest in 50 years.

The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain.

...

The unemployment rate for African Americans nudged down to a record low 5.4%. Also, the total employment level as measured in the household survey jumped to 158.5 million, also a new high.

The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain, also in line with estimates. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.

“This report is yet another sign that the economy is still strong right now and adds to a list of indicators that are looking optimistic of late,” said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. “The vigor of this labor market, along with a more positive housing market and solid Q3 GDP, should offer some welcome reassurance.”

...

The report helps further quell worries that the U.S. economy is teetering toward recession and helps affirm the assessment from most Federal Reserve officials.

Central bank leaders have largely praised the state of the U.S. economy, particularly compared with its global peers.

There's a bit of polling wisdom I heard some time ago, maybe in 2011. I don't know if it's true. But the claim made was that people's impressions of the economy are set one year ahead of an election, and that it's hard to change those impressions either way -- absent something very dramatic -- in the year before the election.

If this is true, then November's economy will set impressions for the country in the upcoming election. And it looks pretty good.

Below, the Trump rally.


Open thread.

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posted by Ace of Spades at 07:54 PM

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