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September 25, 2019

Is Biden Done? New Polls Show Warren Tying or Leading Biden Nationally; Warren Ties or Leads in Early States New Hampsihre, Iowa

Potato Salad Joe is fading.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in today's Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll. Warren gets 27 percent of the vote while Biden gets 25 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic.

That's a statistical tie. But I did mention that she was "leading" in the headline.

Well, by "leading," I meant she was ahead 27 to 25, although, to stress, that isn't considered a lead for statistical purposes because it's within the margin of error.

Though well within the margin of error, this is the first time that a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began asking the question in March.

The top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3 percent. While this is Harris' lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2 percent.

In the August national poll, Biden received 32 percent, Warren had 19 percent, Sanders got 15 percent, Harris had 7 percent, and Buttigieg got 5 percent.

While Warren picks up support across the board, she receives one of her largest gains among white voters with a college degree. These voters were split in August, with 29 percent supporting Biden and 25 percent supporting Warren, and today they support Warren over Biden 37 - 20 percent.


Today, Biden's favorability rating among registered voters is split 45 - 45 percent, and his rating is a favorable 72 - 19 percent among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters. Both of these numbers have gotten worse for the former Vice President since he began his campaign for president. In a December 2018 survey, Biden's favorability rating was 53 - 33 percent among registered voters and 82 - 8 percent among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.

Sen. Warren, though less well known than Biden, gets a similar mixed favorability rating among registered voters: 39 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.

Another poll has Warren and Biden in a tie at 25% each.

In a poll of New Hampshire only, Monmouth finds Warren ahead 27% to Biden's 25% (the same margin that Quinnipiac finds in its national poll).

Two polls already in the news show Warren ahead of Biden in Ioaw, too -- one poll showing an imposing 8 point lead.

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posted by Ace of Spades at 03:28 PM

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