« Kurt Schlichter: NeverTrumpers Don't Hate Trump. Primarily They Hate You. | Main | Whatever You Do, Google's Following You »
August 14, 2018

Democrat Advantage on House Ballot Slips Below Four Points



Guy Benson writes:

We're roughly two-and-a-half months out from election day, and I'm frequently struck by the dissonance in the midterm tea leaves. On one hand, Democrats continue to outperform their traditional metrics -- often significantly -- in off-year and special elections, likely pointing to a very blue November for Republicans. Last week's apparent, narrow victory for the GOP in Ohio fit this pattern, raising additional concerns about the party's standing heading into the general election...

But there are offsetting and countervailing factors, too. First and foremost, the economy is performing very well, which tends to boost the party in power. The GOP's agenda of deregulation and tax reform -- opposed by every Democrat in Congress -- has yielded economic dividends, improving the employment climate and spurring growth. And while the generic Congressional ballot appeared to be see-sawing back toward Democrats after Republican gains in the spring, that indicator is tipping back in the other direction...

He also notes that Democratic registration levels have fallen by 2% since 2016, from 39% to 37%, while Republican registration remained even at 35%.

At The Federalist, Thomas Mitchell writes that if Trump's base shows up, they could actually deliver a RINO-proof majority in the Senate.

He first notes that while Hillary Clinton turned out the vote bigly for her in Midwest cities, Trump turned out the vote even biglier in small towns and rural areas -- which was the decisive shift that flipped the Midwest to him in the presidential election.

In Minnesota, where two Senate seats are in play, both Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, who replaced Al Franken, would face close votes if Minnesota’s smaller-town voters continue as they voted in 2016. Similarly, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and Claire McCaskill in Missouri would likely lose if those voters come back this year.

Joe Donnelly looks almost certain to lose in Indiana at this point. Bob Casey's continued career in the Senate appears to depend on his winning back the blue-collar voters who deserted Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The article has several charts that make all of this more apparent.


digg this
posted by Ace of Spades at 05:30 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
blaster: "Don't we have a helicopter ticket for Soros? ..."

tu3031: "My shocked face! Where is it???? ..."

joncelli, providing the traditional responses: "Oh FFS, after whipping her down Pennsylvania Avenu ..."

WisRich: "476 In letter, Pelosi/Schumer/Schiff/Warner order ..."

LizLem: "Do I have this right? Stormy Daniels wrote suppose ..."

Adirondack Patriot: "In fact, the Senate should investigate this whole ..."

Clifford Cleveland Global Initative For Sustainable Resource Extraction: " Bully Bully One of the best songs ever by Sam ..."

Nonapod: "She looks like Guy Smiley. ..."

Cato by Phone: "These people aren't nearly as smart as they think ..."

It's me donna: "Chuck Grassley is doing everything he possibly can ..."

grammie winger: "If you accuse someone, they have the right to defe ..."

Adriane the How Many Coinky Dinks Is This Critic ...: "Holy Sh!t. ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64