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July 05, 2018

Polls: Democrats Underperforming With Hispanics, Blacks, and White Male Milennials

First of all, an admittedly dated YouGov/Economist poll from May 6-8, as written up by the The Federalist, shows Trump's numbers improving with blacks.

The numbers aren't great with blacks, of course. But the Democrat Party absolutely relies on 90%+ support from blacks for winning elections, and if it creeps below that, they're in trouble:

Among African-Americans, 16 percent approve of Trump, 10 percent are not sure, and 75 percent disapprove.


While that sounds highly negative, these are high positives for a Republican politician among black Americans. Approval of 16 percent is 8 points higher than the 8 percent of black voter support Trump received on election day 2016, and 9 points higher than the black vote Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney received in 2012. The "Not Sure" at 10 percent is staggering, and the 75 percent "disapprove" rating is consistent with the low 70 percent aggregate found in any YouGov poll among this demographic.

The same poll, with their rounding, reported in January that Trump approval was at 10 percent among black Americans, 15 percent were not sure, and 74 percent disapproved, so the numbers are not only steady but improving in Trump's favor.

The Democrats also rely on Milennials, of course. And they're losing support with the big white male demographic of that age cohort:

The Guardian reports that a Reuters/Ipsos mega poll of 16,000 respondents found that in the last two years, support for Democrats among millenials plunged from 55% to 46% while their support for Republicans has only dropped from 28% to 27%.

Even worse for Democrats, in the last two years, support from white millennial men has gone from the Democrats leading Republicans by 12% to the Republicans leading by 11%, a shocking 23% shift.

Why would that happen? Well, strangely enough, some white male Milennials may have gotten the idea that the progressive/socialist/antifa coalition hates white males. They may have gotten this impression from the thousands of statements from the progressive/socialist/antifa coalition that they hate white males and wish to make them go away.

But while the Democrats may be uninspiring to millennials as a whole, the party is actively alienating young, white men. Today's identity politics is impossible for millennials to avoid, whether they are confronted with it on campus or through clickbait comment pieces. In the identitarian worldview, 'white men' are responsible for all the world's woes -- the phrases 'white people' and 'white men' are practically shorthand for evil. Listicles reveal the '37 things white people need to stop ruining in 2018', magazines declare that 'white men must be stopped', while even respectable outlets like the Washington Post ask 'why canít we hate white men?'.

It turns out that white people are no more happy about being targeted as racial scapegoats and hate-objects than black were in the 50s. Who could have guessed.

Now on to today's news, from the National Journal's Josh Kraushaar, about Democrats' failure to lock down the Hispanic vote at the levels they need.

Democrats counting on President Trumpís hard-line immigration policies to spark energized Hispanic turnout and a wave against GOP candidates in this yearís midterms will be surprised to see whatís transpiring. Even during the heat of the family-separation crisis, Democrats are underperforming in heavily Hispanic constituencies, from GOP-held border battlegrounds in Texas to diversifying districts in Southern California to the nationís most populous Senate battleground in Florida.

...

Florida is offering an even bigger shock to the Democrats' system, given its perennial battleground status. In the stateís marquee race pitting Gov. Rick Scott against Sen. Bill Nelson, the governor's standing with Hispanic voters is keeping him competitive despite the difficult political environment for Republicans. Two recently released polls show Scott, a longtime Trump ally, tallying noticeably higher popularity scores than the president in Florida.

He digests polls from other races.

Now, if the GOP is doing okay with Hispanics, why aren't they doing better overall?

Well, it's because the Democrats are increasing support from The Real Enemy We Must All Unite Against: White women.

(Kidding, of course. Sort of.)

If immigration is a winning issue for Democrats in the midterms, it's because they're winning over suburban white women, not because they're mobilizing Hispanic voters against Republicans. Indeed, even as Democrats underperform in these pivotal races, the historic gender gap is what's propelling them to a possible House majority.

Kraushaar finishes by noting the Establishment wing/donor class "autopsy" of Mitt Romney's 2012 election failure:

These results also are an uncomfortable reminder to Republicans who championed the Republican National Committee's infamous 2013 autopsy report claiming the party needed to moderate its position on immigration to win back Hispanic voters. Trump won the 2016 presidential campaign despite embracing hard-line immigration policies and deploying racially inflammatory rhetoric. Meanwhile, these results show that a critical mass of Hispanic voters are willing to prioritize other issues--like the growing economy--in choosing congressional candidates.

One wonders if that was a true "analysis" or the polling-analysis equivalent of a push-poll, trying to use #FakeNews numbers and analysis to push the party into the Open Borders position favored, for reasons not having to do with political success, by the Donor Class/Chamber of Congress.


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posted by Ace of Spades at 04:59 PM

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