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June 11, 2018

Bill Maher: I'm Rooting for a Recession Which Hurts Americans

I hope he fails.

Didn't Rush Limbaugh get boycotted for that remark? And chastised by the media, of course?

Why doesn't Bill Maher?

Maybe living well will be the best revenge. The host of Showtime's "The Circus," Mark McKinnon, observed:

McKinnon tweeted that rhetoric like this -- along with controversial statements from liberal celebrities like Robert De Niro and Samantha Bee -- "plays right into Trump's playbook" and will "help ensure four more years."

By the way, Bill Maher's nasty little wish seems unlikely: Matt Vespa notes that this quarter's GDP growth rate is projected to be 3.8% to 4.6%, which would be the highest quarterly growth rate since George W. Bush, who managed one (and only one) big quarter of something like 4.8% growth.

Obama's average quarterly growth rate (not the same as a single quarter number) was... 1.5%, putting him dead last of all presidents since WW2.

Vespa writes a bit more about the "unstoppable" economy, which is CNBC's word for it, by the way.

Friday's data provided convincing evidence that domestic growth remains intact even if other developed economies are slowing. A better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report coupled with a convincing uptick in manufacturing and construction activity showed that the second half approaches with a tail wind blowing.

"The fundamentals all look very solid right now," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC. "You've got job growth and wage gains that are supporting consumer spending, and tax cuts as well. There's a little bit of a drag from higher energy prices, but the positives far outweigh that. Business incentives are in good shape."

The day started off with the payrolls report showing a gain of 223,000 in May, well above market expectations of 188,000, and the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.

Then, the ISM manufacturing index registered a 58.7 reading -- representing the percentage of businesses that report expanding conditions -- that also topped Wall Street estimates. Finally, the construction spending report showed a monthly gain of 1.8 percent, a full point higher than expectations.

...

The most recent slate of widely followed barometers could see economists ratchet up growth expectations.

Already, the Atlanta Fe''s GDPNow tracker sees the second quarter rising by 4.8 percent. While the measure also was strongly optimistic on the first quarter as well, at one point estimating 5.4 percent growth, other gauges are positive as well. CNBC's Rapid Update, for instance, puts the April-to-June period at 3.6 percent.

...

Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said the ISM number alone is consistent with GDP growth of better than 4 percent, though he thinks the second quarter will be in the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range.


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posted by Ace of Spades at 07:01 PM

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