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January 17, 2017
UK Prime Minister Teresa May Gives Speech Indicating She'll Be Pursuing the "Hard Brexit" OptionThere are three general options May could choose: "Hard Brexit," where the UK exits the common market entirely and relies only on general trade agreements of the World Trade Organization in trading with its continental partners (plus any bilateral agreements it can strike up). The UK would gain almost all of its sovereignty back in this option. Favoured by ardent Brexiteers, a hard Brexit arrangement would likely see the UK give up full access to the single market and full access of the customs union along with the EU. "Soft Brexit" means the UK bargains with the EU and tries to remain in the common market by making some concessions on otherwise-sovereign decisionmaking -- almost surely on immigration. And because Angela Merkel's government has suggested that there will be no special breaks for the UK unless they cave on just about everything else, "Soft Brexit" means, basically, almost no real Brexit at all. Germany (and France) has the whip hand, and they know it. Any minor concession by the EU will only come with major concessions from the UK. Finally, there was (maybe still is) the possibility of "No Brexit at all." After all, a referendum by the people doesn't have to be respected by the political elites. The political elites really don't care much about the consent of the governed. But May has been saying for a while that "Brexit means Brexit," and that she will not seek to undermine the people's decision. Now she's delivered a speech about the principles guiding her in negotiating Britain's exit from the EU, and most are taking this as a "Hard Brexit" positioning. Though, of course, this is negotiating tactic; it's possible she's just matching Germany's declared hardline stance with her own hardline stance, and that something between Hard and Soft can be agreed to once everyone has done the required number of "I'm leaving this room, do not contact me again" door-slams. Here are some of the principles she claims she will fight for: May has set out her Brexit plans over 12 points in a speech at Lancaster House in London. Key among these was a commitment for the UK to leave the EU's single market, and that MPs and peers will get a final vote on the deal. In case you're concerned the MPs could reject May's proposed exit from the common market...
May now having rattled her Iron Saber, it's time for the EU to rattle their own; the main spokesman for the group negotiating with Britain for its exit had this to say in return, on Twitter. Guy Verhofstadt (@GuyVerhofstadt) Britain has chosen a hard Brexit. May's clarity is welcome--but the days of UK cherry-picking and Europe a la cart are over. World War Trump, it sounds like.
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