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November 04, 2016

538: Hillary's Position Is More Precarious Than Obama's Was in 2012

Interesting piece, with a little optimism for anyone who wants that.

Hillary has about the same national lead that Obama did-- but, unfortunately for her, she's getting more votes in very blue states where she doesn't need them (California) and red states where they probably won't do her any good (Texas) than Obama did.

In the actual crucial battlegrounds, she's trailing Obama.

Now, that doesn't mean she's trailing Trump. But it explains why Nate Silver predicted Obama's average expected take of Electoral Votes to be 339, assuming all state polls were accurate, and Clinton's average expected take to be a mere 272 -- a single loss in any of those states would lose the election for her (unless, of course, she makes up for it in a very-possible win of North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, or Florida).

That puts her in a similar situation to Trump -- which is good news, when you compare it to the previous news.


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posted by Ace at 04:25 PM

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