Ace of Spades HQ

« Buh Bayh: Young Surges Ahead of Evan Bayh In Indiana | Main | Whoa: Is the IRS Now Looking into the Clinton Foundation, Too? »

November 04, 2016

538: Hillary's Position Is More Precarious Than Obama's Was in 2012

Interesting piece, with a little optimism for anyone who wants that.

Hillary has about the same national lead that Obama did-- but, unfortunately for her, she's getting more votes in very blue states where she doesn't need them (California) and red states where they probably won't do her any good (Texas) than Obama did.

In the actual crucial battlegrounds, she's trailing Obama.

Now, that doesn't mean she's trailing Trump. But it explains why Nate Silver predicted Obama's average expected take of Electoral Votes to be 339, assuming all state polls were accurate, and Clinton's average expected take to be a mere 272 -- a single loss in any of those states would lose the election for her (unless, of course, she makes up for it in a very-possible win of North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, or Florida).

That puts her in a similar situation to Trump -- which is good news, when you compare it to the previous news.

posted by Ace at 04:25 PM

| Access Comments

Sponsored Content
Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries Land Of The ONT And The Home Of The Brave A Vehicle With a One Dogpower Engine Cafe Biden Wants to Talk To You About Raising Taxes, and Sniffing Your Children's Sexy Hair Quick Hits Emails, Calendars Reveal Jeffrey Epstein's Circle of Trust Media Admits: The Little Mermaid Reboot May Not Even Break Even Mental and Emotional GAINZZZ The Daily Wire Takes Up Elon Musk's Offer to Use Twitter As if It is a Free Speech Platform and Exhibit the Film What Is a Woman? -- But Twitter Employees Demand the Film be Censored, or Face Being Labeled "Hate Speech" and Shadowbanned Tara Reade: The Biden DOJ Openend An Investigation Into Me In 2020, and May Indict Me At Any Time JustTheNews.com: Previously Hidden January 6th Video Shows Nancy Pelosi Continuing to Work With Her Daughter On Her "Documentary" at the Time She Claims She Was Terrified By Dangerous "Insurrectionists" Absent Friends westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups NoVaMoMe 2023: 06/10/2023 Registration closes May 31st. Texas MoMe 2021: 10/2o/2023-10/21/2023 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« Buh Bayh: Young Surges Ahead of Evan Bayh In Indiana \| Main \| Whoa: Is the IRS Now Looking into the Clinton Foundation, Too? » November 04, 2016 538: Hillary's Position Is More Precarious Than Obama's Was in 2012 Interesting piece, with a little optimism for anyone who wants that. Hillary has about the same national lead that Obama did-- but, unfortunately for her, she's getting more votes in very blue states where she doesn't need them (California) and red states where they probably won't do her any good (Texas) than Obama did. In the actual crucial battlegrounds, she's trailing Obama. Now, that doesn't mean she's trailing Trump. But it explains why Nate Silver predicted Obama's average expected take of Electoral Votes to be 339, assuming all state polls were accurate, and Clinton's average expected take to be a mere 272 -- a single loss in any of those states would lose the election for her (unless, of course, she makes up for it in a very-possible win of North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, or Florida). That puts her in a similar situation to Trump -- which is good news, when you compare it to the previous news. posted by Ace at 04:25 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments San Franpsycho: "Good evening morons and thanks wd for all the meme ..." Dr. T: "This post seems contemptuous toward the brave men ..." BignJames: "Might I suggest that, one night the ONT should fea ..." Archimedes: "Not only was the Titanic a dinghy compared to the ..." zombie Kapitänleutnant Walther Schwieger: "My, such fat, juicy targets! ..." Walter Freeman: "[I]@12: "... only comment section more Maoist than ..." jewells45 fuck cancer: "Hi nurse! Hanging in there! ..." nurse ratched : "Jewells! Hi there sweetheart! How are you? ..." Tonypete: "Might I suggest that, one night the ONT should fea ..." Taq, Rickrolled by Jesus: "Thanks WD. Imma read the content but first... ..." mindful webworker - reading between the lines: "… Was trying to come up with a greeting, ..." jewells45 fuck cancer: "Good evening! ..." Recent Entries Land Of The ONT And The Home Of The Brave A Vehicle With a One Dogpower Engine Cafe Biden Wants to Talk To You About Raising Taxes, and Sniffing Your Children's Sexy Hair Quick Hits Emails, Calendars Reveal Jeffrey Epstein's Circle of Trust Media Admits: The Little Mermaid Reboot May Not Even Break Even Mental and Emotional GAINZZZ The Daily Wire Takes Up Elon Musk's Offer to Use Twitter As if It is a Free Speech Platform and Exhibit the Film What Is a Woman? -- But Twitter Employees Demand the Film be Censored, or Face Being Labeled "Hate Speech" and Shadowbanned Tara Reade: The Biden DOJ Openend An Investigation Into Me In 2020, and May Indict Me At Any Time JustTheNews.com: Previously Hidden January 6th Video Shows Nancy Pelosi Continuing to Work With Her Daughter On Her "Documentary" at the Time She Claims She Was Terrified By Dangerous "Insurrectionists" Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Federal Review Real Clear Politics Rasmussen Reports Gallup Zogby Sabato/Crystal Ball Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64