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November 03, 2016

Trump Rising in New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado and Even Virginia, as Presidential Race Is Suddenly... Interesting?

Eh, the headline is enough, but read here for the deets, if you need to mainline polls.

Meanwhile, McClatchky finds independents finally coming home to Trump in swing states in the aftermath of the re-opening of the FBI's investigation into Hillary Clinton.

In Florida, a new CNN/ORC survey of Florida voters had Clinton up 2 and Quinnipiac had her up 1. Trump was leading among independent voters, 46-40, Quinnipiac found.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac gave Clinton a 4-point edge, while CNN/ORC had her up 5. Clinton was ahead by 4 with independent voters, Quinnpiac said.

In North Carolina, Trump was up 45-38 among independents, Quinnpiac said. Clinton led overall by 3. Quinnipiac’s polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday.

In Wisconsin, among independent voters, Clinton was up by 7 over Trump on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday, Trump jumped to a 10 point advantage, then back to 8 in Saturday through Monday interviews.

Note Trump's still behind in most of those states, per these polls cited. That's because there are more Democrats, and a winning Republican needs to win independents -- and even when they do, decisively, win Independents, as Romney did in 2012, they can still lose.

Still, it's hopeful news.

Now, Rasmussen now has Trump at over 50%, nationally, +3 over Hillary, but remember, as we saw in 2012, that in fairly tight races, it all comes down to state by state voting.

If someone's up by six or more, you can assume they'll win without looking at the state numbers. But when the margin is less than that, it depends on how each state goes-- and each candidate's turnout operation in that state. Turnout is something like 10% higher in contested states, due to ad blitzes and on the ground GOTV efforts.

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posted by Ace at 05:27 PM

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