Ace of Spades HQ

« NFL Slump Continues, Bud Light Fires Fat Liberal Pitchmen, ESPN Loses Record Number of Subscribers: Is a Wave Building? | Main | World Series Game 6 [BCochran] »

November 01, 2016

Trump Jumps to Seven Point Lead in North Carolina

A commenter asked if Trump keeps Romney's map (including AZ and UT, which are in play) and adds OH, FL, and NC, would he win?

Answer: No. Alas, that used to be enough to win the White House for Republicans, but now we need at least one other state. Either a big state like Pennsylvania (or Wisconsin, or Michigan) or we could thread the needle by picking up Nevada, plus two spare electors from the single-electoral-vote districts in Maine and New Hampshire.

Any single failure in any of this is a failure overall; unlike Clinton, who has many ways to win (winning any of these contested states would put the election out of Trump's hands), Trump is down to very few paths, and all of them are uphill climbs.

That said, a single poll showing Trump winning North Carolina now by 7 -- 51-44 -- is certainly reason for hope. If there is a break for Trump, it's gotta start somewhere, right?

And on the possibility of winning in Pennsylvania:

One recent poll puts Trump barely ahead. Just barely. Note this same poll shows a tie between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina at 46/46, so who knows:

#Pennsylvania:
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 43%
Johnson 3

North Carolina:
Clinton 46%
Trump 46%
Johnson 2@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs 10/27-31
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2016

There is some cause for hope if you're given over to such things. I think a friend put it best when he said he was "cautiously pessimistic" about Trump's chances. That's about where I'm at.

posted by Ace at 06:59 PM

| Access Comments


Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries Quick Hits Asked About the Murder of Laken Reilly, Bill Clinton Fails to Position Kamala Harris for Success Trump Releases Campaign Ad Decrying "WOKE" Military, Using Clips from Full Metal Jacket; Stanley Kubrick's Daughter Denounces Him. Wait, My Mistake: Stanley Kubrick's Daughter Defends Him. Trump Pauses Campaign Event While Several Attendees Are Escorted Out for "Medical Emergencies;" Kamala Harris and MSNBC Claim Trump Had a Senior Moment Final Proof That Kamala Is a DEI Hire: She Has a Massive Plagiarism Problem Ben Weingarten: The US Government Is Funding Foreign Entities Which In Turn Censor American Citizens Incredibly, Kamala Harris's Staff Again Puts Out the Word That Biden is Failing to Position Her for Success The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Mid-Morning Art Thread The Morning Report — 10/15/24 Absent Friends Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups Texas MoMe 2024: 10/18/2024-10/19/2024 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« NFL Slump Continues, Bud Light Fires Fat Liberal Pitchmen, ESPN Loses Record Number of Subscribers: Is a Wave Building? \| Main \| World Series Game 6 [BCochran] » November 01, 2016 Trump Jumps to Seven Point Lead in North Carolina A commenter asked if Trump keeps Romney's map (including AZ and UT, which are in play) and adds OH, FL, and NC, would he win? Answer: No. Alas, that used to be enough to win the White House for Republicans, but now we need at least one other state. Either a big state like Pennsylvania (or Wisconsin, or Michigan) or we could thread the needle by picking up Nevada, plus two spare electors from the single-electoral-vote districts in Maine and New Hampshire. Any single failure in any of this is a failure overall; unlike Clinton, who has many ways to win (winning any of these contested states would put the election out of Trump's hands), Trump is down to very few paths, and all of them are uphill climbs. That said, a single poll showing Trump winning North Carolina now by 7 -- 51-44 -- is certainly reason for hope. If there is a break for Trump, it's gotta start somewhere, right? And on the possibility of winning in Pennsylvania: One recent poll puts Trump barely ahead. Just barely. Note this same poll shows a tie between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina at 46/46, so who knows: #Pennsylvania: Trump 44% (+1) Clinton 43% Johnson 3 North Carolina: Clinton 46% Trump 46% Johnson 2@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs 10/27-31 — Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2016 There is some cause for hope if you're given over to such things. I think a friend put it best when he said he was "cautiously pessimistic" about Trump's chances. That's about where I'm at. posted by Ace at 06:59 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Rufus T. Firefly: "@155 >>>Ace-thanks for that clip with Vance and th ..." ShainS -- Assassination is The Ultimate Form of Censorship [/b][/i][/s][/u] : " JD Vance 2028 Posted by: wth at October 15, 20 ..." fd: ""I found younger pictures of Martha Raddatz. She d ..." wth: "With her new breast implants. Except they put them ..." 18-1: "I found younger pictures of Martha Raddatz. She do ..." Oldcat: " If Martha Radditz and James Carville had children ..." Maj. Healey: "[i]176 Posted by: Don Black, reminding you to wint ..." sal, who watches way too much TCM: "I wanted the quote where JD said the correct numbe ..." Diogenes: "Martha Raddatz looks well past her "Best If Used B ..." butch: "wait, these young thugs have guns!? I was assured ..." fd: ""Foreign gangs more prepared for warfare, and don' ..." Xipe Totec: "Heh! The MSM is referring to what Clinton said as ..." Recent Entries Quick Hits Asked About the Murder of Laken Reilly, Bill Clinton Fails to Position Kamala Harris for Success Trump Releases Campaign Ad Decrying "WOKE" Military, Using Clips from Full Metal Jacket; Stanley Kubrick's Daughter Denounces Him. Wait, My Mistake: Stanley Kubrick's Daughter Defends Him. Trump Pauses Campaign Event While Several Attendees Are Escorted Out for "Medical Emergencies;" Kamala Harris and MSNBC Claim Trump Had a Senior Moment Final Proof That Kamala Is a DEI Hire: She Has a Massive Plagiarism Problem Ben Weingarten: The US Government Is Funding Foreign Entities Which In Turn Censor American Citizens Incredibly, Kamala Harris's Staff Again Puts Out the Word That Biden is Failing to Position Her for Success The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Mid-Morning Art Thread The Morning Report — 10/15/24 Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Real Clear Politics Rasmussen Reports Gallup Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64