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November 01, 2016

Trump Jumps to Seven Point Lead in North Carolina

A commenter asked if Trump keeps Romney's map (including AZ and UT, which are in play) and adds OH, FL, and NC, would he win?

Answer: No. Alas, that used to be enough to win the White House for Republicans, but now we need at least one other state. Either a big state like Pennsylvania (or Wisconsin, or Michigan) or we could thread the needle by picking up Nevada, plus two spare electors from the single-electoral-vote districts in Maine and New Hampshire.

Any single failure in any of this is a failure overall; unlike Clinton, who has many ways to win (winning any of these contested states would put the election out of Trump's hands), Trump is down to very few paths, and all of them are uphill climbs.

That said, a single poll showing Trump winning North Carolina now by 7 -- 51-44 -- is certainly reason for hope. If there is a break for Trump, it's gotta start somewhere, right?

And on the possibility of winning in Pennsylvania:

One recent poll puts Trump barely ahead. Just barely. Note this same poll shows a tie between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina at 46/46, so who knows:



There is some cause for hope if you're given over to such things. I think a friend put it best when he said he was "cautiously pessimistic" about Trump's chances. That's about where I'm at.


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posted by Ace at 06:59 PM

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