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September 26, 2016

Neck and Neck: National Polls Put It At A One Point Race, With Trump Ahead in Some; Trump Ahead By One Point in Colorado, Behind By One Point in Pennsylvania

Here are the latest polls from Real Clear Politics.

Quinippiac: Clinton 44, Trump 43.

Blooomberg, 4-way: Trump 43, Clinton 41. In the two way, no third party candidates offered as choices, it's tied at 46 apiece, but it's silly to even mention that, because Binary Thinking is like so 2015.

The Morning Consult poll, which has generally been favorable to Hillary, now has Trump ahead by 1, 39 to 38.

A Washington Post/ABCNews poll has Clinton up by two with likely voters, 46-44, but with registered voters, it's all tied up at 41.

That may suggest that Trump has a greater upside with new/irregular voters... if they turn out. Which they usually don't -- unless it's for a candidate they're enthusiastic about. And many do seem enthusiastic about Trump.

In two blue states -- Colorado and Pennsylvania -- CNN has it a one point race in either. In Colorado, it's 42 Trump 41 Hillary; in Pennsylvania, it's Hillary 45 Trump 44.

In more bad news for Hillary, Trump voters used to say they were backing him just to stop Hillary; now a plurality say they're affirmatively voting for him.

Obviously, the debate tonight is very important. The most important one of all three.

More: Trump absolutely blowing Hillary out of the water with one of the largest cohorts in the voting public, non-college educated white men. He's leading her by 59 points with this group, 76 to 17. Mitt Romney won this group too -- but only by 31 points.

Of course, the reason that Trump isn't destroying her in the overall numbers is that he's lost almost an equal number of college educated voters.

So tell me again how crazy I was to posit a year ago that this was largely a class-based race and that the college-educated crowd was feeling resentful and scared at having their hegemony -- their ability to cast a class-wide veto over a candidate -- challenged and ultimately scotched.


This song doesn't have anything to do with the post but I heard it on the radio yesterday. I had stupidly forgotten how awesome it is. Enjoy.

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posted by Ace at 11:10 AM

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