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September 23, 2016
Trump's Five Paths to 270
One of those paths is actually to 269, but a tie goes to the House of Representatives, where presumably he'd win.
Interesting stuff.
Clinton's path to 270 is relatively simple: (a) steal Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina; or (b) win her five must-win states and prevent Trump from getting 16 more electoral votes from among the 25 remaining on the board. (If Clinton wins right-leaning Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina, there's no way she'll fail to win the requisite number of left-leaning states.) Trump's task is to win his 3 must-win states (plus the 23 states that are givens) and then follow any one of five different paths to winning the remaining 17 electoral votes he'd need to achieve victory.
Despite everyone pretty much putting Virginia into Queenlackthrone's column, it's the most centrist of all battleground states. It still could surprise.