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September 14, 2016

Good News, Generally, For Trump as Hillary Collapses*
* I Only Mean "Collapses" In the Metaphoric Sense*
* That's a Lie, I Meant It Just the Way You Took It

Trump passes Clinton in Nevada.

Clinton in the battleground state of Nevada, according to a new Monmouth University survey.

Trump leads Clinton in the poll, 44 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent. Three percent of likely voters are undecided, and another 3 percent indicated they would vote for the “none of these candidates” option.

And he's moved ahead in Colorado. Some polls show Clinton's edge staggering and falling to the ground (Metaphor only!!!). Another poll shows him narrowly ahead.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week gave Trump a narrow edge in a two-way race, 43 percent to 41 percent — his first lead in Colorado in the 2016 election. It follows two other recent polls showing the presidential race as a dead heat or within 5 percentage points.

A Bloomberg poll of Ohio puts him up 48 - 43.

Trump closes to 3 points in Maine-- and as a commenter points out, Maine awards some delegates by Congressional district. Given such a close race, you'd have to imagine he picks up one of the Electoral Votes here (that is, if it's a 3 point race, he's probably ahead in one CD).

This Bloomberg analysis notes that the Democrats are quietly whispering about Clinton's "stumbles" -- and yes, they actually used that word.

Those bastards.

Eight weeks from Election Day, Democrats are feeling queasy about Hillary Clinton's narrowing national and battleground-state lead over Donald Trump. A race some had considered a layup for Clinton on Tuesday showed Trump within 2.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The Democratic presidential nominee's stumbles over the weekend—from a botched response to a health incident to having to partially disavow her comment slamming “half” of Trump's supporters—has heightened concerns.

“I'm totally afraid. Donald Trump definitely has the chance to win. It's really close. Closing here in Pennsylvania and Florida,” said Clinton Barnes of Philadelphia, who attended President Barack Obama's rally there Tuesday for Clinton. “It's all spooky.”

“Hillary's been her own worst enemy,” he said. “People think she's dishonest.”

...

Rendell said he was “guardedly optimistic” Clinton would still win the election.
Keep up with the race of a lifetime.

The disclosure that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia was a quintessentially Clintonian stumble, with her instinct for secrecy proving more damaging than the facts of the situation.

I'm revising my forecast from "Trump will almost certainly lose" to "Trump is more likely than not to lose."






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