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July 20, 2016

A Little Background And Commentary From Daniel Pipes On Erdoğan And The Failed Coup [CBD]

Remember Daniel Pipes? He is the guy who thinks that ISIS will self-destruct from internal pressures within the year. I have my doubts about that, judging from the the pathetic response to its provocations (read: savage murders) in Europe and here at home. If we don't exert significant pressure on them externally, they have the leisure time to fix what ails them internally.

But the guy knows the Arab and Muslim world better than most, so for background information he is a very worthwhile source. Interestingly, he publicly rooted for the success of the coup, unlike the testicle-free leaders of the free world.



He makes three points to bolster his argument for deposing a "democratically elected" president of a putative ally (NATO!).

  • Erdoğan stole the election.
  • Erdoğan rules despotically.
  • Military intervention has previously worked in Turkey.
Turkey is the country where military coups d'état have had the most positive effect. In all four of the modern coups (1960, 1971, 1980, 1997), the general staff has shown a disciplined understanding of its role -- to right the ship of state and then get out of its way. Their ruling interludes lasted, respectively, five years, two and a half years, three years, and zero years.

Turkey would benefit now from a spell of military readjustment, ending Erdoğan's increasingly rogue rule, even if that meant replacing him with more reasonable Islamist figures from his own party, such as Abdallah Gül or Ali Babacan.

Pipes also thinks that Erdoğan will be eventually thrown out. I don't see him overstepping with the West. We are simply too weak and chaotically unfocused on the real fight to do much about him. Russia is another story. Putin knows very well that he can act with impunity, so Turkey must tread lightly, or the Russian bear, old and slow and arthritic as it is, might just decide to snack on some Turkish delights.

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posted by Open Blogger at 02:20 PM

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