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July 13, 2016

State Polls: Trump Catching Up to Hillary in Wake of Email Scandal

Whether or not this holds, I don't know. I doubt it. It should be borne in mind that at Trump's lowest point, he was losing 11-13 points nationally; at Hillary's lowest point, she's still leading Trump nationally -- just by 3.

But for the moment, Trump looks okay in battleground state polling. We'll see what happens the next time he lets his mouth off the leash.

In Wisconsin, Trump has narrowed Hillary's lead. Hillary now leads him 45-41, but she had previously led 46-37.

Per Quinnippiac, Trump has passed Hillary in Florida, 42-39, and is also ahead in Pennsylvania 43-41 (which is a statistical tie, but we'll take it). He's actually tied in Ohio, 41-41.

Better news for Hillary in a Battleground poll, which has her ahead of Trump in Iowa 42-39, but really shellacks him in Pennsylvania 45-36. This poll also shows a tie in Ohio, 39-39.

Note how low these voteshares are -- often they're in the 40% range, for either candidate. The public just doesn't like its choices.

And yet they have to choose in November. The race will likely come down to whose partisans are the most reluctant to vote for their candidate -- that is, who is most invested in teaching the other members of one's party a lesson.

I know Democrats always, ultimately, fall in line. They are disciplined zealots in the socialist cause.

The Republicans are much more fractious.

If I'm being honest, I don't think Trump can win. Yet to replace him, you'd need unambiguous evidence he is a sure loser. The timing of the Comey announcement makes the race look competitive just before the convention -- the last chance the Replace Trump forces would have to swap him for a more viable candidate.

This reminds me of how Bill Clinton won in 1992. During primary season, George Bush's approval rating was something like 88% (following the brief and successful Iraq War). That kept many more prominent Democrats from seeking the nomination -- they thought Bush's reelection was a lock.

But then the brief and shallow recession hit, and Bush's approval dropped to something like 38%. So Clinton won.

Similarly, at any decision point where Trump could be bounced from the ticket, Hillary's corruption is enough to make Trump look competitive.

But I fear that by November, the public will have given up on its brief spasm of judgmentalism about petty little matters like national security, lying, and rampant felonious activities.

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posted by Ace at 03:15 PM

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