Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
ColoradoMoMe 2020: 04/25/2020 Wheat Ridge CO: Postponed
Contact Westminsterdogshow for information.

NoVaMoMe 2020: Rescheduled for August 29, 5:00-10:00 pm, Fairfax, Virginia. Contact Bluebell & Weasel with questions.

Texas MoMe:

Contact Ben Had
Obama, the Viciously Dogmatic Ideologue, Further Divides Nation at Funeral | Main | Martha Stewart: Millennials Are Trash That Needs Taking Out
July 13, 2016

State Polls: Trump Catching Up to Hillary in Wake of Email Scandal

Whether or not this holds, I don't know. I doubt it. It should be borne in mind that at Trump's lowest point, he was losing 11-13 points nationally; at Hillary's lowest point, she's still leading Trump nationally -- just by 3.

But for the moment, Trump looks okay in battleground state polling. We'll see what happens the next time he lets his mouth off the leash.

In Wisconsin, Trump has narrowed Hillary's lead. Hillary now leads him 45-41, but she had previously led 46-37.

Per Quinnippiac, Trump has passed Hillary in Florida, 42-39, and is also ahead in Pennsylvania 43-41 (which is a statistical tie, but we'll take it). He's actually tied in Ohio, 41-41.

Better news for Hillary in a Battleground poll, which has her ahead of Trump in Iowa 42-39, but really shellacks him in Pennsylvania 45-36. This poll also shows a tie in Ohio, 39-39.

Note how low these voteshares are -- often they're in the 40% range, for either candidate. The public just doesn't like its choices.

And yet they have to choose in November. The race will likely come down to whose partisans are the most reluctant to vote for their candidate -- that is, who is most invested in teaching the other members of one's party a lesson.

I know Democrats always, ultimately, fall in line. They are disciplined zealots in the socialist cause.

The Republicans are much more fractious.

If I'm being honest, I don't think Trump can win. Yet to replace him, you'd need unambiguous evidence he is a sure loser. The timing of the Comey announcement makes the race look competitive just before the convention -- the last chance the Replace Trump forces would have to swap him for a more viable candidate.

This reminds me of how Bill Clinton won in 1992. During primary season, George Bush's approval rating was something like 88% (following the brief and successful Iraq War). That kept many more prominent Democrats from seeking the nomination -- they thought Bush's reelection was a lock.

But then the brief and shallow recession hit, and Bush's approval dropped to something like 38%. So Clinton won.

Similarly, at any decision point where Trump could be bounced from the ticket, Hillary's corruption is enough to make Trump look competitive.

But I fear that by November, the public will have given up on its brief spasm of judgmentalism about petty little matters like national security, lying, and rampant felonious activities.

digg this
posted by Ace at 03:15 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Jim W: "I experimented with knife sharpening quite a bit o ..."

Martini Farmer : "When are you going to share a Sous Vide pizza reci ..."

Additional Blond Agent, STEM guy [/i]: "[i] I use a fine sieve so I can cover the dough wi ..."

Can't resist temptation : "The problem is not that they know so much which is ..."

lin-duh en fugue : "The farmers market guy charges $ 1.50 an inch to s ..."

vmom 2020 - Introvertish Neutral Good: "these tweets will cheer you up! https://twitter ..."

Skip: "I like Scotch and might have a before dinner drink ..."

Diogenes : "You had me at blueberries! ..."

Not what Miklos ordered: "No anchovies on that pizza. ..."

blake - semi lurker in marginal standing: "ALH borrowed a recipe and didn't loan it out? S ..."

Grump928(C): "[i]Clarification: The claim that Trump 2020 has pu ..."

Skip: "Stocked up on many kinds of Goya beens and olives ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64