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March 31, 2016

Trump's Narrow Path to 1,237

It seems most likely he will not actually make it.

And losing Wisconsin -- where the latest poll has him down 40-30 to Cruz -- would make his difficult road even steeper.

One interesting thing from The Hill article -- in four of the remaining states, most delegates are elected by primary voters, but by state party officials.

Four states out of the remaining 20 break from the traditional primaries and caucuses held elsewhere by sending unbound delegates to the national convention.

These contests will test the organizational strength of the candidates.

Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota and Pennsylvania will either send unbound delegates to the convention, or will elect delegates who have already declared a preference for one of the candidates.

That puts the onus on the candidates to get their supporters elected to the national convention in those states.

So far, Cruz has proven most adept at this.

For instance, Trump won the popular vote in Louisiana, but Cruz might take home more delegates, having succeeded in winning over the five unbound delegates from the state.

It's possible that scenario could play out similarly in Pennsylvania, where party activists will elect 54 of the state's 71 delegates.

I had thought that Pennsylvania would likely go Trump, with Kasich dividing up the non-Trump vote with Cruz. It's possible that Cruz (or Kasich, frankly) could win the lion's share of the votes here.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Trump's SuperPAC is going to work on Cruz, claiming he favors "amnesty" for Syrian refugees.



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posted by Ace at 02:14 PM

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