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March 01, 2016

Michael Bloomberg Probably Won't Run For President, and Why That's a Bad Thing

The little dictator probably won't run.

Michael Bloomberg, I think, would have eaten more of Hillary's support than any Republican's. I suppose that if Trump were the nominee, Bloomberg, despite his ferocious nanny-statism and gun-grabbery, would have been a somewhat appealing protest vote for some of the GOP's #NeverTrumpers.

But not too many. Most of the #NeverTrumpers would just not vote, or vote third party.

The specter of a Bloomberg run would mostly haunt the Democrats. I think, now that Bloomberg is retracting this threat, he mainly intended to be an alternative to Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton. Now that Hillary Clinton seems to have the nomination in the bag -- assuming she's not indicted -- he's content to let his establishment liberal run unopposed against, I guess, Trump, and probably win, if all of the polls, forever, can be believed (and I have yet to read any explanation of why they ought not be believed -- polls have generally been correct this cycle).

Meanwhile, Rubio briefs his most important donors and bundlers to let them know that he'll have a dismal day today, and might get as few as 100 delegates from all the states that vote today.

His idea is to keep people on board, because his plan is not to win 1237 delegates, but to just keep Trump from amassing 1237 delegates, and then hope to win the nomination at the convention on the second ballot.

One problem with this plan:

"It was a presentation that defied reality," said one Rubio backer. "They said their convention strategy was not contingent on winning any states.... Even if you go to the [second ballot] why would anyone say Marco Rubio is the guy to give it to?:

Indeed, at that point, now that you're not bound to pick anyone who ran, why not pick a surprise candidate that could unify the party?

Prediction: If this plan seems to be working -- if Trump is winning, but appears to not be on course to win the 1237 needed to win on the first ballot -- expect some experienced GOP figures have a sudden conversion on immigration and issues important to the working class.

I should note that Newt Gingrich is already kinda-sorta positioning himself for this.

I'm Listening: From the comments:

Maybe it's time to rally around a consensus candidate, one we all admire and support : John McClain.

Posted by: Dr Spank

Threadwinner. It's funny because it's so true.


digg this
posted by Ace at 04:52 PM

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