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September 09, 2015

Update on the New Plan on the Iran Deal

That plan is outlined here:

My source tells me House GOP opposition to going forward under Corker-Cardin is so strong that Boehner agreed to drop this process and instead adopt a different approach with three House resolutions.

The first would declare that President Obama violated Corker-Cardin by failing to provide the side deals to Congress.

The second will bar President Obama from lifting sanctions against Iran.

The third will be a resolution outside of Corker-Cardin to "approve" the Iran deal that all Republicans will vote no on. Most Democrats will vote yes.

My source says the following:

This is "real" in the sense that this is being pushed forward by people who seem to actually want to stop the Iran deal. So this itself isn't Failure Theater.

It would not restrain Obama from doing the things he can do on his own initiative, such as waiving sanctions.

However, many on the GOP Establishment side of things say that everything can be done by executive action, so this is "the best the GOP could do." Not true, my source says. A number of things in the deal are contradicted by the already-agreed-to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and a treaty can only be modified by another treaty, not by a bill, and certainly not by a mere executive order.

So, could this stop Obama? Yes and no. He'll be able to waive sanctions, but the bill, if passed, would stop "the deal" (broadly defined) from being part of US law. Some things he can do, some he can't, and some we'll just have to see about -- in court.

If Obama attempts, as he will, to implement some things that require treaty-level solemnity to pass -- my source says it's likely a court would actually issue a restraining order, a stay.


At least all this would give us a fighting chance in court.


Now, would this three-in-one bill pass the House? Probably not; McConnell, of course, does not want it to pass. He wants to get on with passing the deal he claims to so stridently oppose.


This is my own speculation (mostly) but I'll just say that when the Donor Class-owned Establishment is pushing this hard for something with a 21% approval rate, you can bet that actually the Donor Class wants it (trade with Iran, oil from Iran), and so then the Establishment secretly wants it too; they just want to put on a good show for their constituents marks at home.

When it seems inconceivable that people should be pushing so hard that so few people want -- always look to the possibility that the few people who do want it are the Right People. The connected, cash-money-democracy sort of people.

Open Thread.


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posted by Ace at 07:00 PM

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