Politico: John Boehner's Future in Doubt

Their take: even if he survives the motion to Vacate the Chair that Mark Meadows is filing (which would eject him from leadership, should it pass), there would not be enough votes in 2017 to re-elect him speaker, and he's probably gotta start thinking about retirement at this point.

Something has changed for John Boehner.

Figures in his close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House. And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017.

The Boehner era might be coming to an end, they say....

Some Boehner insiders argue privately that the speaker should announce that this will be his last term as leader, as a way to engender some goodwill and head off any imminent move against him. Others counter that would immediately make Boehner a lame duck and harm his No. 2 and potential successor, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, because agitators would have time to organize against the California Republican.

Erick Erickson comments, suggesting that conservatives are thinking about replacing Boehner with Kevin McCarthy -- which strikes me as replacing shit with crap, but the claim is that McCarthy can be bargained with.

Behind the scenes, I don’t think people realize that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is already plotting and is described by various conservative congressmen as "transactional" in a way that Boehner is not. This further undermines Boehner in a way he probably did not expect.

The "transactional" factor favors people other than Boehner, who seems to believe self-righteously in his own RINOism -- and therefore impels him to treat actual conservatives with contempt.

posted by Ace at 12:44 PM

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