Ace of Spades HQ

« Rick Perry Has Filled the Leadership Gap That Barack Obama Left Behind to Play Pool and Drink Starbucks | Main | Overnight Open Thread (11 Jul 2014) »

July 11, 2014

AOSHQ Decision Desk: Can a Republican Win Back the Maryland Governor's Mansion?

While covering the upcoming Senate contests, and some of the more hotly contested gubernatorial ones like Maine and Illinois, I received an email asking about my home state and the upcoming race there. Honestly, I had written the race off, so I ignored it. But I received several more emails inquiring about the race, so I figured it was at least worth exploring.
Governor Martin O'Malley is term-limited and his Lieutenant Governor, Anthony Brown, won the Democratic primary handily. Republicans picked Larry Hogan to challenge Brown in the November contest. So what are the odds Hogan can pull off an upset? What can be done to recapture that 2002 magic in this historically Democratic state? Is there any conceivable path to victory?

Well, we've crunched the numbers and have prepared a very detailed primer for the race, which we honed down just a bit to avoid a long, rambling response.

So, can a Republican win back the governor's mansion in Maryland?

No.

posted by CAC at 07:14 PM

| Access Comments

Sponsored Content
Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries Overnight Open Thread 05/31/2023] Komodo-Roman Wrestling Cafe Quick Hits Tornoto Blue Jays Compel Pitcher Who Supported Target, Bud Light Boycotts Into Forced Public Confession and Reeducation Camp Woke Hasbro/Wizards of the Coast Race-Swaps Aragorn for New "Lord of the Rings" Themed Magic: The Gathering Card Set The Freedom Caucus Objects to McCarthy's Compromise With Biden on the Debt No-Limit, Saying He Gave the Store Away Grand Jury Report: Environmental Extremists Who Defaced a Priceless Painting at the Smithsonian Arranged Press Coverage With the Washington Post Before Committing Their Crime "Another Company Needing Bud-Lighting:" Parents Complain of Kohl's Selling "Pride" Onesies Sized for Three Month Old Babies Wednesday Morning Rant [Joe Mannix] Mid-Morning Art Thread Absent Friends westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups NoVaMoMe 2023: 06/10/2023 Registration closes May 31st. Texas MoMe 2021: 10/2o/2023-10/21/2023 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« Rick Perry Has Filled the Leadership Gap That Barack Obama Left Behind to Play Pool and Drink Starbucks \| Main \| Overnight Open Thread (11 Jul 2014) » July 11, 2014 AOSHQ Decision Desk: Can a Republican Win Back the Maryland Governor's Mansion? While covering the upcoming Senate contests, and some of the more hotly contested gubernatorial ones like Maine and Illinois, I received an email asking about my home state and the upcoming race there. Honestly, I had written the race off, so I ignored it. But I received several more emails inquiring about the race, so I figured it was at least worth exploring. Governor Martin O'Malley is term-limited and his Lieutenant Governor, Anthony Brown, won the Democratic primary handily. Republicans picked Larry Hogan to challenge Brown in the November contest. So what are the odds Hogan can pull off an upset? What can be done to recapture that 2002 magic in this historically Democratic state? Is there any conceivable path to victory? Well, we've crunched the numbers and have prepared a very detailed primer for the race, which we honed down just a bit to avoid a long, rambling response. So, can a Republican win back the governor's mansion in Maryland? No. posted by CAC at 07:14 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Lurking Cheshirecat: "back to content ..." Cicero (@cicero43): "John Muir was the schnizz. ..." Lurking Cheshirecat: "Missed. ..." AlaBAMA: "Someone farted in the elevator. ..." Bertram Cabot, Jr.: "The House passed the Debt bill. ..." AZ deplorable moron: "Good evening CBD! Hope you have had an excellent ..." Diogenes: "Too five. ..." Nightwatch: "You all are beyond tazing the funny bone tonight.. ..." Walter Freeman: "Mhmm. ..." Cicero (@cicero43): "Wooo hooo! ..." AlaBAMA: "Democracy is saved. Posted by: Cicero (@cicero43) ..." AZ deplorable moron: " Circus continues. Posted by: AlaBAMA at May 31, ..." Recent Entries Overnight Open Thread 05/31/2023] Komodo-Roman Wrestling Cafe Quick Hits Tornoto Blue Jays Compel Pitcher Who Supported Target, Bud Light Boycotts Into Forced Public Confession and Reeducation Camp Woke Hasbro/Wizards of the Coast Race-Swaps Aragorn for New "Lord of the Rings" Themed Magic: The Gathering Card Set The Freedom Caucus Objects to McCarthy's Compromise With Biden on the Debt No-Limit, Saying He Gave the Store Away Grand Jury Report: Environmental Extremists Who Defaced a Priceless Painting at the Smithsonian Arranged Press Coverage With the Washington Post Before Committing Their Crime "Another Company Needing Bud-Lighting:" Parents Complain of Kohl's Selling "Pride" Onesies Sized for Three Month Old Babies Wednesday Morning Rant [Joe Mannix] Mid-Morning Art Thread Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Federal Review Real Clear Politics Rasmussen Reports Gallup Zogby Sabato/Crystal Ball Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64