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May 05, 2014

Washington Post Electoral Forecast Finds Republicans Have 82% Chance of Capturing Senate

82%?

Meanwhile, an unrelated poll by USAToday/Pew predicts the possibility the largest GOP midterm gains in 20 years.

Yes, more than 2010.

Voters currently have so strong a preference for the Republican Party that if midterm elections were held today the results would signal the strongest gains for the GOP in two decades, a new poll has found.

According to the new USA Today/ Pew Research Center Poll conducted April 23-27 of 1,501 people, including 1,162 registered voters, 47 percent said they are inclined to support the Republican candidate over the Democrat in their congressional district in 2014, compared to 43 percent who would choose a Democrat.

That result is so massive that it suggests 2014 could be a major "wave" election more sweeping than the election of 2010 that saw the tea party movement's rise to dominance.

...

The GOP's lead in the generic congressional ballot is the largest at this point in the midterm cycle for Republicans in the past 20 years, including before the partisan "wave" elections in 1994 and 2010.

By way of comparison, in 1994 the same poll found that Republicans had only a +2 advantage in 1994 (which produced the first GOP-held House since 1952) and were net-even with Democrats in 2010.

The 1994 election produced +54 GOP House seats and, interestingly, +8 Senate seats.

I doubt the GOP can win more than a dozen new House seats (we've gotten nearly as many as we're likely to get) but that +8 Senate figure is possible.


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posted by Ace at 02:47 PM

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