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April 03, 2014

Senate Seats Ranked in Likelihood to Flip

A nice, big map for all of you to get your election hats on.

Map is too big to open here and is worthless at 500px, so: View image

I'm interested in seeing what the morons who live in these states happen to think. I have a feeling the rankings between #5 and #9 are going to be the most contested by the crowd, so I'll give you my thinking based on the data we have:

#5 I have Hagan as more vulnerable than Landrieu because
1- her approval rating is worse
2- her polling against the Republican choices has been worse
3- she's a one-cycle "wave" baby.
4- Landrieu has the bonus of November being an open primary- if Cassidy can't clear 50%, she can theoretically duke it out in the run-off.

#6 I have Landrieu ahead of the open race in Michigan because
1- Where Landrieu trails in polling, the Republican is in the mid 40s or better, whereas Michigan polling finds Republican Land leading, but leading in the very low 40s.
2- Michigan is historically far bluer than Louisiana

#7 I have the open Michigan race ahead of Begich's seat because
1- Land, the Republican running in Michigan, has been consistently beating Democrat Peters in the polls.
2- Land has a cash advantage over Peters, which so far isn't the case in Alaska.
3- Begich has tried to distance himself from President Obama, whereas Peters has been Crist-ing it up.
4- Peters apparently hates cancer patients.

and I have #8 Begich's seat ahead of #9 Udall's because
1- Polling is better for the Republicans in Alaska than in Colorado
2- Colorado voted for Obama twice, Alaska didn't
3- Udall won his contest comfortably in 2008, Begich (barely) beat Ted Stevens, who was badly damaged by corruption charges.

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posted by CAC at 07:30 PM

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