Sponsored Content

Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Charles Koch Defends Himself Against the Charge of Expressing His Opposition to the Leftist Agenda | Main | Cute Dogs Eating Cabbage
April 03, 2014

Senate Seats Ranked in Likelihood to Flip

A nice, big map for all of you to get your election hats on.

Map is too big to open here and is worthless at 500px, so: View image

I'm interested in seeing what the morons who live in these states happen to think. I have a feeling the rankings between #5 and #9 are going to be the most contested by the crowd, so I'll give you my thinking based on the data we have:

#5 I have Hagan as more vulnerable than Landrieu because
1- her approval rating is worse
2- her polling against the Republican choices has been worse
3- she's a one-cycle "wave" baby.
4- Landrieu has the bonus of November being an open primary- if Cassidy can't clear 50%, she can theoretically duke it out in the run-off.

#6 I have Landrieu ahead of the open race in Michigan because
1- Where Landrieu trails in polling, the Republican is in the mid 40s or better, whereas Michigan polling finds Republican Land leading, but leading in the very low 40s.
2- Michigan is historically far bluer than Louisiana

#7 I have the open Michigan race ahead of Begich's seat because
1- Land, the Republican running in Michigan, has been consistently beating Democrat Peters in the polls.
2- Land has a cash advantage over Peters, which so far isn't the case in Alaska.
3- Begich has tried to distance himself from President Obama, whereas Peters has been Crist-ing it up.
4- Peters apparently hates cancer patients.

and I have #8 Begich's seat ahead of #9 Udall's because
1- Polling is better for the Republicans in Alaska than in Colorado
2- Colorado voted for Obama twice, Alaska didn't
3- Udall won his contest comfortably in 2008, Begich (barely) beat Ted Stevens, who was badly damaged by corruption charges.

digg this
posted by CAC at 07:30 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
m: "368 Howzabout choo? Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius, ..."

Miklos recalls the Irma Thomas cooked the best: "Morning, insomaniacals! I slept (mostly) until the ..."

Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere [/i] [/b]: "Morning, insomaniacals! I slept (mostly) until th ..."

Fanni Willis: " Hiya Posted by: JT I got my summons sex-txt b ..."

JT: "Hiya ..."

The Pennsylvania Blueberry Authority: "Skip is under investigation. ..."

Angry Haley supporter on CNN: "Trump said NO NOODLES HE SAID THAT ..."

JT: " https://tinyurl.com/2s4cbvue 20 Tweets from Bad ..."

Angry haley supporter in Saluda, South Carolina: "I want Thai noodles DELIVERED NOW ..."

Miklos is only on brain thinners: "Apparently everyone has remembered to take ALL the ..."

m: "359 I suppose Pixy about to come in from Down Unde ..."

Not Very Judgemental Aunt Miklos: "I suppose Pixy about to come in from Down Under. ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64