Is US Obligated To Go To War To Defend Ukraine? (Spoiler: No)

In light of Russia's military moves in Crimea, there was quite a bit of talk about the sol called "Budapest Memo". This memo was signed in 1994 by the UK, Russia, the US and Ukraine as part of the deal the removed the nuclear weapons of the former Soviet Union from the territory of the newly independent Ukraine (aside, I bet they wish they had kept them now).

So does this memo obligate us to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine? Nope.

Here's the memo:

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

The relevant portions of the memo are points 1 & 6. All signatories to the agreement are "to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine". Should something happen (like the Russians ignoring point 1) that upsets this agreement, we are obligated to "consult" with the rest of the parties covered by the agreement.

I'm sure the Russians will be happy to abide by point 6 and "consult" about how they have flagrantly violated point 1 and then head off to a nice lunch somewhere in Geneva, Vienna or wherever they agree to laugh at us, I mean consult with us.

Bottom line...the Russians are going to get Crimea and if they want the rest of Ukraine because no one cares enough about it to start World War III over it.

Putin is going to continue to what he's been doing for years...reconstitute as much of the old Soviet empire as he can out of the bits that weren't smart or quick enough to join NATO at the first chance they had. No US President is going to stop this and no amount of tough talk or financial sanctions is going to stop Putin.

The only real question left is what happens when he runs out of non-NATO bits to gobble up and turns to places like the Baltic states which are NATO members? That's when things get...sporty.

Below the fold, everything you need to know about Ukraine crisis courtesy of Teh Fred in The Hunt for Red October.

posted by DrewM. at 12:24 PM

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