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January 06, 2014
More than Four Years Since The Great Recession Officially (Technically) Ended, The Economy's Still TerribleThe economy supposedly posted growth of 4.1% last quarter. If that's true, why is the economy still so sickly? While there's little sense that the U.S. economy is headed for another downturn, most forecasters expect further improvement in 2014 will be gradual. Unless and until the job market improves substantially, and higher wages drive a convincing pickup in consumer spending and demand, the lingering damage to confidence will likely keep the weakest economic recovery in memory plodding along at a frustratingly slow pace. Mother Jones (!) punctures the idea that the economy is Just Fine with charts. Former Obama economic advisor Larry Summers notes that this "recovery" does not resemble prior ones. Last month I argued that the U.S. and global economies may be in a period of secular stagnation in which sluggish growth and output, and employment levels well below potential, might coincide for some time to come with problematically low real interest rates. Since the start of this century, annual growth in U.S. gross domestic product has averaged less than 1.8 percent. The economy is now operating nearly 10 percent, or more than $1.6 trillion, below what the Congressional Budget Office judged to be its potential path as recently as 2007. And all this is in the face of negative real interest rates for more than five years and extraordinarily easy monetary policies. He outlines three responses: Supply side economic policy, Fed easy-money monetary policy, and a progressive demand-side policy. He winds up championing the third. Obama advisor arguing for more Obamanomics, go figure. But here's what he says about the second strategy, the Fed's helicoptering money into the economy:
Artificially juicing the economy with money we don't have results in artificially raising prices for things. Thus creating a bubble. And we may be back to creating a second housing bubble. I guess we're creating a second housing bubble because the first one was so awesome. IN November, housing starts were up 23 percent, and there was cheering all around. But the crowd would quiet down if it realized that another housing bubble had begun to grow. The writer notes that a bubble can be detected when the rate of growth of prices for buying property greatly exceed the rate of growth of rents that can be charged for that property. After all, the actual income one hopes to generate from property is based on its rental value; if the property's value is going up at double the rate of rents, then that increase in price is due to speculation about the property's future value. And that's the sign of a bubble. Today, after the financial crisis, the recession and the slow recovery, the bubble is beginning to grow again. Between 2011 and the third quarter of 2013, housing prices grew by 5.83 percent, again exceeding the increase in rental costs, which was 2 percent. ... So here we go again. By the way: Lawrence Summers referred to "secular stagnation" in the economy. Here's a quick definition from Wikipedia. During the Great Depression, private capital investment fell because of excess capacity and lack of good investment opportunities. Secular stagnation theory blamed inadequate capital investment for hindering full deployment of labor and other economic resources. I'm not an economist, but it sure sounds if Larry Summers is right, he should be arguing for methods of increasing capital investment. And that means incentivizing it, or, rather, not disincentivizing it as much as we do presently. And that means we should do the exact opposite of what Obama is doing, not more of the same. Thanks to @rdbrewer4 for most of the links in this post. | Recent Comments
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