So Who Else Retires?

With the announcements of Reps Wolf and Matheson's retirements today, we saw a potential R-D seat swap in the House's roll call. Some excitement for Mia Love, some for the hundred or so Republicans and Democrats who will jump at the chance to win VA-10, but nothing particularly earth-shattering. What would intrigue me a lot more: a Democratic Senator pulling a last-minute retirement announcement.

Think I'm dreaming? Ben Nelson waited until the last week of 2011 to announce he was going to retire rather than see his ass mashed into paste over his Obamacare vote. Unlike the vulnerable Democrats discussed for this cycle, he was trailing badly in polls, but if any candidate's private polling paints an uglier picture for them than their campaign is letting on, and they want to avoid the heartache of a humiliating loss, they still have plenty of time to bow out.

Rockefeller, Baucus, Johnson, Levin and Harkin all announced their retirements much earlier in the cycle, leaving Republicans with solid pickup opportunities in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota; a draw in Michigan; and putting them slightly behind in Iowa. Each of these retirements inch the Republicans closer to majority status, and an additional retirement would mean Republicans can win the Senate without targeting a single Democrat incumbent. Unseating someone like Pryor or Hagan would then just be icing on the cake.

So who do you think may decide to throw in the towel?

posted by CAC at 05:04 PM

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