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November 12, 2013

Obamacare cratered the highly educated demographic.

Earlier, Ace pointed out that the millennials are falling by the wayside now.

I've been digging into the specifics of the recent Gallup. Obama is losing his Centurions -- the stalwarts of progressiveism, and indoctrinators of the young.

Obama CRATERED 10 points in the past month among one specific demographic that has supported him all along -- people with graduate degrees. (this link is a spreadsheet)

Now he's underwater with them too at 47%.

He's been briefly underwater with this demographic before a couple of times, but only one week blips during particularly bad news cycles. This time its different. There was a sustained 5 week decline leading to this 47% figure. This is the first sustained five week decline he's had with this demographic. Ever. Its ummm...unprecedented. Perhaps even...unexpected.


The last foray into this territory for Obama with this demographic was during the hugely unpopular Libya bombing campaign. If he doesn't bounce on the next Gallup with the influencers and indoctrinators, that could be very bad for him. People talk on campuses, if they start talking thought crime type things, the 2014 elections could turn ugly for democrats.

The general long term trend has been a slow erosion in this demographic as well . He started over 70% with them peaking at 73% a couple of weeks after taking office (original "stimulus" signing time-frame).

Its looking like the usually reliable college professor and high end professionals demographic finally cracked under the weight of Obamacare realities. Discussion in a faculty lounges and corporate break rooms must be pretty "spirited" these days.

With that interesting result in hand, consider this piece at The New Republic pimping Elizabeth Warren as the one who can knock off Ms. Inevitable in the 2016 primaries.

...three years from the next presidential election, and Hillary Clinton is, once again, the inevitable Democratic nominee...

...as central as this debate is to the identity of the party, Democrats won’t openly litigate it until they’re forced to ponder life after Obama...

... In addition to being strongly identified with the party’s populist wing, any candidate who challenged Clinton would need several key assets. The candidate would almost certainly have to be a woman, given Democrats’ desire to make history again. She would have to amass huge piles of money with relatively little effort. Above all, she would have to awaken in Democratic voters an almost evangelical passion. As it happens, there is precisely such a person. Her name is Elizabeth Warren...

There's a problem here though. Warren has pimped Obamacare saying she "knows it works".
If Obamacare continues on its path to becoming about as popular as ebola by 2016, and continues being so toxic it alienates even the progressive leaning highly educated class, where can Warren stand that doesn't make her vulnerable to being painted as an Obama 3rd term the way McStain was painted as a GWB 3rd term?

Hillary OTOH can claim, with some believability even, that "she learned" from the early 90's Hillarycare debacle. There's distance there. Decades of distance. People can credibly say they've shifted positions over a span of decades. Grown more mature, thoughtful, considered, etc. But here's Warren, of a comparable age to Hillary, who's only viable play is to make the same "metamorphosis", but over scant years rather than decades...and sell that to people recently burned bad by Obamacare.

I dunno, it just seems a bridge too far to me. Maybe Hillary blows it and gives it to Warren and Warren somehow overcomes the Obamacare taint, she is after all "of the body" and projects more faux sincerity than Obama ever did, but I remain skeptical at this point. Warren's resume is about as thin as Obama's was regarding actual executive experience.

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posted by Purp at 07:21 PM

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