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August 21, 2013

Is Amnesty Dead?

Amnesty is like the main character in a horror movie franchise. Every time you think it's dead there's someone who thinks they can squeeze a few more dollars out of another sequel and back it comes.

Still, there's growing feeling on the left and right that this round is over.

Conservative talk radio may not have killed amnesty this time around, but it definitely helped liberals realize they’ve already lost.

On Tuesday, House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., said the following to conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt:

In my opinion if you, after you have the borders secure and these enforcement mechanisms in place. If you were to do something, I would start first of all with children who were brought here illegally by their parents. They’ve grown up here. They’ve been educated here. They are ready to face the world and they have no documents. I think there’s a more compelling argument to be made for them. But, even for them, I would say that they get a legal status in the United States and not a pathway to citizenship that is created especially for them.

Follow the link and you'll see a number of liberal writers linked to who are realizing that the game is up this time.

Here's a taste of Josh Marhsall's take from TPM.

I get that it’s difficult for immigration reformers to see and accept the writing on the wall — that reform is likely dead in this Congress. … But pretending this isn’t the case is actually damaging the prospects of reform.

It makes all the tactical and strategic sense in the world to take this out of the confusing arcana of Washington’s intentionally obfuscating procedural maze and put it back into the political realm where it belongs. In other words, stop pretending that the GOP House’s hardening resolve to kill the Senate bill is going to change and take this whole question back to the people looking forward to the 2014 election.

Now, the GOP may still find a way to give into it's suicidal fascination with amnesty but preventing a quick vote in the House before the August recess was vitally important. When they come back it's going to be all about ObamaCare, the debt ceiling and the Continuing Resolution. The GOP is on the defensive with a good part of their base on those issues and what can be delivered. It really would be a suicide run to top off what will likely be unsatisfying endings on those issues with amnesty.

If amnesty dies it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the 2016 field. You'd have to think the pro-amnesty types are going to have to do some major re calibration of their positions. This would mark the 4th time the GOP base has stood firm on amnesty (2007, pushing McCain and Romney to the right in 08/12). Being to the left of the base on this creates a major hurdle to overcome for the Rubio and Ryans of the world.

So it's not dead, it may not even be resting but there are some hopeful signs. That of course means it's not time to let up but to double the pain. Go to town halls, write letters and keep the pressure on. Only an idiot would keep pushing amnesty at this point but they don't call the GOP "The Stupid Party" for nothing.


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posted by DrewM. at 09:29 AM

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