Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« Mitch McConnell Taking On The Left. UPDATE: Calls For End Of Automatic Dues Collection For Federal Worker Unions | Main | Official Obama Policy: Leaking Run-of-the-Mill Non-Classified Information Is the Equivalent of Treason and Espionage »
June 21, 2013

Pro Amnesty "Conservative": Yeah, The GOP Will Have To Become More Liberal To Win Hispanics

Michael Gerson is a former George W. Bush staffer who thinks the key to the GOP is Bush's "compassionate conservatism", aka, social conservatism and big government policies. In other words, he's a mess.

Naturally Gerson supports amnesty. Unlike most amnesty supporters he has the decency to admit that to win over Hispanics the GOP can't be as conservative as the base wants it to be. Not exactly a surprise coming from a Team W guy.

Such an adjustment depends on Hispanic voters being gettable by Republicans — which many restrictionists deny. Hispanics, it is argued, are inherently favorable to big government. But there is some paradoxical hope to be found for the GOP in the recent collapse of its appeal among Hispanics. This did not happen because immigrant groups became more liberal or more welfare-dependent. It happened because Republicans seemed more hostile to their interests. Clearly there is some elasticity in Latino political opinion. A GOP political strategy might begin by removing the stick they have put in the eye of a rising demographic group — the main political argument for supporting immigration reform.

This won’t be enough. While appealing to Hispanic voters is not like appealing to Manhattanites — it doesn’t involve the abandonment of social conservatism — it does require a populist economic agenda. Recent immigrants are naturally concerned about a working social safety net, a working public education system and a working job-training system. Republicans will need to offer serious reform proposals in these areas. And this requires a positive, active, market-oriented role for government that competes with more centralized and bureaucratic Democratic approaches.

Here's the biggest problem Gerson has...Hispanics NEVER supported the GOP in great numbers. Even in the W. Bush years, Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Democrats.

A little bit of history of the Hispanic vote in presidential elections.

1984 66/34 Democrats 1988 70/30 Democrats (this was the first election after the last amnesty when it should have paid off most for Republicans) 1992 61/25 Democrats (Perot was 16) 1996 72/21 Democrats (Perot was 6) 2000 62/35 Democrats (Buchanan 1, Nader 2) 2004 53/44 Democrats (Nader 2). Bush's support may have been as low as 40%. 2008 67/31 Democrats 2012 71/27 Democrats

If you average those numbers you'll see that the GOP traditionally gets about...31%. So Romney wasn't exactly that far off. Granted, this is a crude way of looking at it given the increase in the percentage of Hispanics, about 2% in 1988 up to 9% this year and lots of other factors, but it gives you a ballpark.

Yes, Romney was on the low end of the average but he still did better overall than McCain even though McCain got greater support from Hispanics.

George W. Bush is the outlier, not the average the GOP can expect. But even in 2000 when he won an above average share of the Hispanic vote, he still lost the popular vote.

In many ways W. was the perfect candidate for Hispanics. He had long connections to the community in Texas, he tried to speak Spanish (terribly by all accounts), was a social conservative and supported a big, activist government.

Want to lose Hispanics by a smaller than usual margin? Great nominate a guy like W. who governed as he advertised, ""We have a responsibility that when somebody hurts, government has got to move."

People always talk about education reform as the key to winning Hispanic and back votes but it hasn't worked for 30 years, I'm not sure why anyone will think it will work in the next 30.

As I've said many times, there may well be reasons to pass amnesty but keeping the GOP as the (at least theoretical) party of small government isn't one of them.

At least Gerson is honest(ish) enough to admit that winning Hispanic votes means giving up on small government. In fairness to him, that was never his goal.

If you think W. is the rightward maker of where the GOP can or should be, then amnesty makes perfect sense.


digg this
posted by DrewM. at 12:01 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Notsothoreau: "Mincemeat used to contain meat. Most recipes now ..."

CharlieBrown'sDildo: "Sorry I couldn't mix it up more...life intruder! ..."

Ben Had: "Thank you for the ever enjoyable food thread ..."

Bertram Cabot, Jr.: " [i] And, technically, spam is a food product. P ..."

Joe Kidd: "One food item that I need to try and make is beef ..."

Pete Bog: "And a crap ton of alcohol. Posted by: RedMindBlue ..."

Joe Kidd: "165 Bib and Tucker Double Char - the best moderate ..."

Appycay : "Found preparation instructions at wikihow.com that ..."

RedMindBlueState[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "[i]Moki, the English Tea Store carries a very good ..."

BeckoningChasm: "Again, many thanks for the suggestions. I had not ..."

From about That Time: "This summer I learned store brand add water only p ..."

Joe Kidd: "Regarding prime rib roasts, I've gotten pretty goo ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64