Iran Elects A Moderate President (Whatever That Means) And Why That Makes It More Likely Iran Will Get Nukes

I think the guy's name translates from Farsi as "Moderate". Either way, the media has their story-line and they are sticking to it.

Lots of western diplomatic types are swooning because they know the guy from nuclear talks with Iran.

Rohani rose to international prominence as Iran's nuclear negotiator in talks with Britain, France and Germany from 2003 to 2005 that saw Iran agree to suspend nuclear fuel enrichment-related activities, tamping down Western pressure on Tehran.

He left the post when Ahmadinejad came to office in 2005. Tehran defiantly relaunched and expanded uranium enrichment, and there has been no substantive progress in intermittent negotiations with six world powers since then.

Naturally, The Diplomacy Will Save Us crowd is excited about the prospect of more....wait for it...diplomacy!

Rowhani win stuns #Iran clero-security elite that let its guard down; offers @BarackObama opening for big accords on nukes, #Syria. Seize it

— Jeffrey Laurenti (@J_Laurenti) June 15, 2013

I replied to Mr. Laurenti that Iran has repeatedly failed the test and it was up to them to test us. If President Moderate is the real deal, let him make some unilateral steps toward us. I was informed I was the kind of person who would not have trusted Gobachev (true I didn't and rightly so) and that Lucy will hold the football steady this time.

(I doubt Mr. Moderate got by "the clero-security elite" without anyone noticing since he's been the Supreme Leader's representative on Iran's Security Council for "two decades")

Here's my theory. First, the mullahs weren't caught sleeping. They are taking a calculated risk that they can give the Iranian people who they want (and they do seem to want this guy), keep control of the country and also buy time from the west by appearing reasonable.

Look at the first quote. When soon to be President Rohani negotiated a suspension of enrichment deal it helped keep the west from pushing hard on Iran. So then the Mullahs gave the world Ahmadinajad who pushed the program ahead while stalling the west with the hope of getting back to the Rohani era of "progress". Now that that string has played out and even Obama can't find a way to move ahead diplomatically, the mullahs comeback with Mr. Moderate and everyone's old friend the deal maker. Now the diplomacy crowd will tell us he wants to talk (and build nukes) but he's going to need some time to consolidate power and we can't push him too hard too soon or the hardliners will undercut him. We may even need to ease up on the sanctions as a show of good faith and to give our buddy President Moderate something tangible to fight off the hardliners. So hard nosed diplomacy let alone military action will be argued against for awhile. We'll get back to diplomacy in a year or so. Then we have to give it a year or two to work and by then....booom, the Iranians will have a nuke. But at least we can negotiate our containment strategy with President Moderate.

The diplomacy doves are playing checkers and the mullahs are playing Aussie Rules Football.

posted by DrewM. at 03:47 PM

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