Huh: Yes, There Is Skill In Rock-Paper-Scissors

Via Instapundit, an interesting article on how to win at Rock Paper Scissors.

It seems funny that you can have skill at the game because it's random. But of course it's not random, usually. Human choices usually aren't. Human behavior falls into patterns which can be exploited.

Here's the biggest take-away, I think, unless you're so gung-ho about winning RPS that you want to "study your opponent's moves" for hours: Most people will not throw the same sign twice. (Clarification: Most people who don't know about this exploit, I mean.)

This is exploitable.* If your opponent throws paper, play the odds and assume he will not throw paper next, but instead rock or scissors. Throw rock. Now the odds are in your favor that you can only tie (if he throws rock) or win (if he throws scissors).

If he throws rock, next throw scissors. (He will probably throw scissors or paper, and you will either win or tie.)

If he throws scissors, next throw paper. (He will probably throw either paper or rock, and you will probably win or tie.)

So there you go. I just dramatically improved your chances to avoid going out to buy beer. When you're sitting on your couch, waiting for your friend or spouse to get back from the cold and rain, you can use that extra time to say "Thank you, Ace!" (Even though I technically only linked this and didn't really invent it.)

* The Nazis' "unbreakable cipher" Enigma was exploitable partly due to the fact that a letter could never be encrypted into itself. Any non-random chink like that becomes a crib.

posted by Ace at 04:35 PM

| Access Comments