AOSHQDD- A look at the upcoming Senate races

After two back-to-back cycles of disappointment, I'll admit I'm feeling a bit disillusioned. Technically 2014 should give us a lot of hope, with a lot of easily winnable races up for grabs. So let's take a look.

So far, so good.
Republicans have two very, very winnable races in Alaska and Montana, with incumbents Begich and Baucus sweating bullets. In the event former governor Schweitzer decides to primary Baucus, that race will become a tough get, but for now Baucus' scandals and popularity nosedive puts him in a far, far more vulnerable position than Tester was last November. Senator Begich had the 6-year gig of occupying an Alaskan Senate seat he won by beating (barely) a man who loved internet tubes marred in a scandal. Up for re-election in a midterm, and with several strong Republican options on the table, he isn't likely to survive.

Other potential gets are in Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Dakota, seats currently held by Pryor, Landrieu and Johnson who each enjoyed comfortable re-election in 2008 but with health care votes under their belt and strong contenders in each of their states, not to mention the shifting tide of red over blue in each of them, none of them will enjoy the same trip next November.

The seat vacated by Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia is now Capito's to lose, and lose she may if there is a contentious primary, the sky is blue, and West Virginia Democrats shoot a target in a commercial. A toss-up for now.

North Carolina positions itself nicely as the sixth major pickup opportunity for the GOP, with Hagan up for re-election, sans Lizzy Dole as her opponent, and Obama at the top of the ticket. The Tar Heel state was one of the few to switch back to red in the Presidential race despite turnout nearly matching 2008. Next years' electorate will likely mimic something akin to 2002/2006/2010 more than that. With state-level gains by the Republicans continuing last November, the GOP needs to consolidate behind a candidate quickly but has a very good chance at snagging and restoring the Senate delegation to all-red.

Lastly we have the seat vacated by John Kerry and open for a special election, which means Scott Brown has a second chance at life. In an off-year race, Republicans stand some sort of shot, and as Brown has proved, special elections boost that further. With positive ratings, solid name recognition and no clear Democratic challenger, he has an excellent chance to win, and taunt Warren as a result.

Taking all this into account, I can see a 2-3 seat gain for the Republicans.

Why so low when there are eight potential gets?

These are all the races that were gimmies/near-gimmies for us in the last two elections. Races we blew either due to the sheer stupidity/madness of our candidate or their inability to campaign effectively in states that went to Romney by double-digits.

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever underestimate the power of stupid.

posted by CAC at 11:31 AM

| Access Comments