Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries
Daily Tech News 29 April 2024
Sunday Overnight Open Thread (4/28/24) Gun Thread: End of April Edition! Food Thread: Little Donkeys! Yum! First-World Problems... Blue-On-Blue Fighting! Cheer For Casualties On Both Sides! Sunday Morning Book Thread - 04-28-2024 ["Perfessor" Squirrel] EMT 4/28/24 Daily Tech News 28 April 2024 Saturday Overnight Open Thread (4/27/24) Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
NoVaMoMe 2024: 06/08/2024 Arlington, VA Registration Is Open! Texas MoMe 2024: 10/18/2024-10/19/2024 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info |
« Jesse Jackson, Jr. To Resign Within the Hour |
Main
| Thanksgiving Recipes & Such »
November 21, 2012
Post-Election State-by-State Trend Analysis (With Maps!)One of the problems with pre-election war-gaming is that some simulations assume roughly uniform movement in all states based on previous elections and national polling. As you can see in the map below, this is clearly not the case. There are often regional trends, bounces for a candidate's home state, etc. The first map below shows each state and the direction and intensity that the state moved from the 2008 election to the 2012 election. As you can see, only five states moved in Obama's direction and there are explanations for each. New Jersey and New York: This is probably the result of a Sandy bounce. Louisiana and Mississippi: Unless there is a broader trend I'm missing, this is most likely not so much movement in 2012 but instead urban voters still displaced from Hurricane Katrina in 2008 that had finally returned home by this election. That could be wrong, but that's my guess. Alaska: Sarah Palin bounce in 2008. Interestingly, Arizona did not see a similar crash in 2012. The next map compares each state's 2012 change to the national trend of 4.4% movement towards the GOP. This will show whether a state underperformed or outperformed the popular vote movement. As you might expect, the Northeast didn't show much movement towards the GOP. What's interesting is just how badly the Southeast underperformed the national trend in 2012. The knee-jerk takeaway is probably that Evangelicals were a bit underwhelmed by Mitt Romney. The Southwest has been rumored to be the future graveyard of the GOP, but both New Mexico and Nevada outperformed the national trend. Arizona's lack of movement is probably more the result of a slight 2008 bounce for McCain than anything else. So, perhaps that conclusion is a little premature. Those all-important swing states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado? All of them underperformed the national trend. I'm sure Obama's ad blitz, early voting push and microtargeting focus on these states had plenty to do with that. Some good news: the Rust Belt (minus Ohio) seems to be moving in the GOP's direction as a region. Unfortunately, it wasn't quite fast enough for the 2012 election but Republicans would be smart to target this region more forcefully in upcoming elections. Finally, the gut punch: See the five reddest states on that map? This indicates the strongest movement towards the GOP in 2012 and all five states went to Mitt Romney decisively. There were also Senate races in those five states. We lost four of them. Update: It seems I didn't explain this well enough. First map shows movement in 2012 relative to 2008. So, for example: South Carolina: 2008 - GOP by 8.9%, 2012 - GOP by 10.6%. So the trend is only 1.7% towards the GOP, hence light red. Second map compares this 1.7% movement to the national popular trend of 4.4% towards the GOP. Hence, South Carolina underperformed the national trend. So, blue. | Recent Comments
Puddleglum, cheer up for the worst is yet to come:
"5: That tinyurl goes to YouTube ..."
OrangeEnt: "Wolfus, don't forget to post that link you mention ..." m: "256 https://tinyurl.com/3h6m262j 20 Tweets from B ..." OrangeEnt: "So, if my computer shuts itself off as I'm using i ..." Buzzion: "Posted by: John Drake Nearing The Caspian Sea at A ..." John Drake Nearing The Caspian Sea: "The Pixy thread is early! I hope whatever angered ..." Puddleglum, cheer up for the worst is yet to come: "Mornin' ..." meh: "Good afternoon. ..." Skip: "PIXY'S TECH THREAD IS NOOD ..." Skip: "G'Day everyone ..." m: "256 https://tinyurl.com/3h6m262j 20 Tweets from B ..." John Drake Nearing The Caspian Sea: "Yes, I condemn myself - but I was appalled to find ..." Recent Entries
Daily Tech News 29 April 2024
Sunday Overnight Open Thread (4/28/24) Gun Thread: End of April Edition! Food Thread: Little Donkeys! Yum! First-World Problems... Blue-On-Blue Fighting! Cheer For Casualties On Both Sides! Sunday Morning Book Thread - 04-28-2024 ["Perfessor" Squirrel] EMT 4/28/24 Daily Tech News 28 April 2024 Saturday Overnight Open Thread (4/27/24) Search
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Primary Document: The Audio
Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer Top Top Tens
Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |