Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!





Recent Entries
GOP Sources: We're Looking Good In CO, IA, NH, and WI | Main | National Poll Closing Times
November 06, 2012

Remember: John Kerry Easily Won the Exit Polls In 2004, Leading to the "Seven Hour Presidency"

So the Exit Polls are being leaked now. Drudge headlines "Race tight." You'll be seeing more leaks, with real numbers.

But remember: These are just polls. Surveys. And they skew more Democratic than the actual polls do.

In 2004, Kerry was picking out new curtains for the Oval Office because the exit polls showed him destroying George Bush.

But then people started noting: In the Pennsylvania exits, there were 22% more women surveyed than men. Could that be right?

No, it wasn't right. The exit polls had a massive Democratic skew for several reasons. The people conducting the polls were young college students, for example. Older voters avoided them (figuring they would look down on their vote) and they, in turn, avoided older voters (because older voters are square, man!).

Basically, exit polls have a very high level of self-selection. They are not random. The pollster decides who looks like a nice young Democratic-leaning voter who she might want to date, and chats him up about his vote. And the voters self-select, because they don't really feel like being judged for voting Republican by a 19 year old sociology major.

Also ignore the secondary findings from the exit polls -- stuff like "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" or "What's the top issue of this campaign?"

All of these results are skewed by a far-too-liberal sample.

Though I might hazard a guess that "Tight race" means "Romney winning" in actual votes.

I See Now... Drudge is saying the exit polls show Obama winning Ohio, Iowa, others.

Silly. These exit polls also said Kerry won Ohio. He did not win Ohio.

Completely Inaccurate: The skews are huge.

Four years ago, on Pollster.com, we gathered all of the official tabulations posted as polls closed and extrapolated the underlying estimates of the outcome for each state. When later compared against the final vote counts in each state, we found that the initial estimates had overstated Barack Obama's margins by an average of 4.7 percentage points.

It gets worse. That's just the average.. In some states, they overstated Obama's margin of victory by sixteen and a half points.

They also went the other way in some cases -- in a couple of McCain states, they overstated his support by 5.5 points.

I think the reason for this is that conservatives in blue states and in swing states just don't want to explain their vote to a sociology major.



digg this
posted by Ace at 05:45 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Peaches: "Carried over from the last threadnever do that . . ..."

Misanthropic Humanitarin : "Peaches! Yay! ..."

Ricardo Kill: "Hat won't tell me... ..."

BCochran1981 - Credible Hulk: "[i]19 Fuck you. Let's get this ONT ON! Post ..."

cm9000: "Carried over from the last thread- Is There Someth ..."

t-bird: "Hey, Kim, since you're in charge of all our media ..."

Santa's Hat: "A "Politically Correct" Christmas ending... htt ..."

Marv Albert: ">>>yesh!!!Posted by: Peaches at December ..."

Ricardo Kill: "Fuck you. Let's get this ONT ON! ..."

eman: "Did Stalin ever eat pizza? ..."

Chi-Town Jerry: "Yo. ..."

All Hail Eris: "Hello my precious poppets! ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64