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November 06, 2012

GOP Sources: We're Looking Good In CO, IA, NH, and WI

Assuming Romney wins Florida, NC, and Virginia, then Wisconsin, Colorado, and either Iowa or New Hampshire wins it for him.

I think Team Obama is trying to put out word that Virginia is shaky for Romney. I think they're trying to demoralize us. I don't believe it.

If Rasmussen and Gallup are right about the partisan skew of the country's actual voter population, which is either R+1 or R +6, respectively, then the polls offered by virtually everyone else aren't worth jack.

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, itll likely be because of something revealed by a little-noticed statistic released yesterday by the polling firm Rasmussen following a similar statistic last week from Gallup.

Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic.

This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people 15 times the number in a statistically significant poll.

This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican. Except that last week, Gallup the oldest and most reputable national pollster released its party ID survey of 9,424 likely voters. And it came out 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.

This means two firms, with huge numbers of likely voters in their surveys, are finding on election eve that there are more Republican than Democratic voters.

Why does this matter? Because never in the history of polling, dating back to 1936, have self-identified Republicans outnumbered Democrats on Election Day. Never. Ever.


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posted by Ace at 05:19 PM

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