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ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting;
One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's Revisions "Will Be a Disaster"
| Main | Irreconcilable Differences: Either The State Polls Are Divorced From Reality, Or the National Polls Are
October 31, 2012

Michigan: 2 Point Seven Damn Points

As I do a lot, I'm taking a lot from @benk84's early headlines post.

2.7% Obama lead in Michigan, 47.7% to 45%.

The Obama campaign Tuesday announced its first network TV ads will begin airing this week in Michigan. Neither candidate had bought airtime here, but earlier Tuesday, Romney's super PAC launched a $2.2 million advertising final blitz in Michigan.

That brings Restore Our Future's investment in Michigan post-primary up to nearly $10 million, according to the PAC which until now had been unanswered by the Obama campaign.

By the way, I just read an article -- not sure which; I closed it -- noting that Romney had plenty of money to spend and couldn't really spend it all by election day if he just concentrated on the swing states. So if you're worried that this is wasted money, well, thanks to those who donated to Romney (you know who you are, clap yourselves on the back) he's really not forced into difficult decisions. He can spend in Ohio and play in some speculative states too.

This is problematic for Romney:

lso new in this poll, Romney now has a more favorable impression than unfavorable among likely voters at 44.7 percent favorable. Obama's favorable rating is 47.8 percent.

If you assume (again, as I'm doing lately) that your favorable rating represents your upper bound of support, then Romney needs to move his favorable up to 51% or so.

Which he can do. He does have some positive ads which test well. That ad of him just addressing the camera is rated highly by undecided voters. Plus, there's that heart-string pulling ad about him helping the dying boy write his will. And all those ads cut from his great moments at the debates.

Romney does have an advantage here that Obama doesn't: After four years of campaigning, mixed in with golf, and an occasional foray into governance, Obama is very well known to people and his numbers are mostly inelastic. Romney's image has more elasticity, more upside. It can be more readily changed than Obama's.

And, as usual, Romney is tantalizingly close in Pennsylvania. Still behind, but just close enough to get hopes up. 49-45, within margin of error.


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posted by Ace at 04:19 PM

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