ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting;
One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's Revisions "Will Be a Disaster"

Assuming the BLS even releases data on Friday, which they're still hedging about. Update: Just heard on Fox the BLS is saying they will deliver the report on time.

ADP is a big payroll-service firm which releases its own assessment of job growth (or job losses), based partly on its own data.

Their new methodology occasioned a revision to their already-reported September figures.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation [in September] at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

...

The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

I kind of hate posting expectations-game things like this. If a guy says it might be a disaster, then any non-disaster figure becomes a "win" for Obama.

Still, it's so grabby a quote I have to publish it.

But let's all remember the sudden appearance of almost a million new jobs last month, indicating a torrid pace of jobs growth that somehow managed to not show up anywhere else in America besides BLS' poll.

Update: Just heard on Fox that the "consensus" estimate from Wall Street analysts is an uptick in the unemployment rate.

Then again, who knows? Maybe another 1,000,000 phantom jobs will suddenly appear.

posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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