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October 29, 2012

Just in Time? Rasmussen Finally Has Romney Up Two In Ohio, 50-48
Update: Gallup's Poll of National Party Identification Finds... Republicans Leading, R+1

I just wanted to see one poll with Romney up. We've got that now.

At Hot Air's Green Room, Duane Patterson posts a snippet of an interview with one of the crew at Real Clear Politics. Based on Obama's low numbers -- he may be "ahead," but he's stuck at 47-48% -- he says "edge to Romney."

And then you get a dynamic so it’s like the President’s at 48% in Ohio. But if he’s at 48% on the ballot test, and he’s only up a point in the average? That almost, the edge almost leans to Romney at that matter, because the undecideds are probably going to break, you know, they’re not, it’s very unlikely they’re going to break for the President. So I think with the fact that the state polls lag the national polls, so I think Ohio’s actually closer than two points right now. And you give, you know, the President’s not at 50%. He’s at 48%. I would give, right now, the slight edge to Romney in Ohio.

Rasmussen's latest poll only has 1% undecided (one percent!), so in that poll, it appears the undecideds have broken already, to the extent they're going to break. (1% favors a third party candidate.)

Michael Barone, who's forgotten more about polls than most people have ever known*, predicts a Romney win.

Flynn at Breitbart notes that Romney continues to lead on what we think should be the decisive issues in this election -- economy, jobs, deficit.

Nationally, Gallup again has Romney out front 51-46 again, and the Politico/GWU battleground poll -- while putting Obama up a single point (at 49), says its actual model predicts a 52-47 win for Romney.

or the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).

Politico, by the way, chose to only report the 49-48 (Obama lead) figure. Weekly Standard notes this:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

I got a little worried. I wanted either a bunch of polls showing Romney ahead by 5 nationally, or a poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio. I'm feeling less worried today.

Gallup's Party ID poll might hint at a landslide -- the current figures are R+1. Democrats 35%, Independents 29%, Republicans 36%.


That would be pretty big. If that's right, it's over, and no amount of turnout or ground game can save Obama. Romney draws more Democrats than Obama draws Republicans, and Independents favor Romney by double digits, and the national ID figure is R+1? If all those things are true, game over.


* I always wonder about that form of a compliment. It seems to be saying the guy you intend to compliment is forgetful or something.

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posted by Ace at 03:38 PM

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