Overnight Open Thread (10-25-2012) | Main | Top Headline Comments 10-26-12
October 25, 2012

Hurricane Sandy (tmi3rd)

A late good evening, Morons and Moronettes, from the AoSHQ Weather Desk. It seems like we just did this last year with Hurricane Irene, and Sandy is a very rare bird indeed. For the moment, however, let's concentrate on what we've got in the short term, and we'll move to the longer-term implications shortly.

Forecast map and discussion below the fold...


As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Hurricane Sandy is a strong Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 90 mph sustained and gusts to 115 mph. Motion is roughly NNW at 12 mph. Minimum pressure is 968 millibars, which is fairly impressive.

Okay, so the first thing that jumps out in the map above is the big swing back to the northwest as it approaches the Tri-State area. That's pretty rare for Atlantic hurricanes; usually, they turn east and keep going. So let's talk about why that's happening.

Tropical systems take the path of least resistance. They tend to thrive under high pressure and get torn apart by areas of low pressure. It's currently getting torn up by its interactions with a low pressure area over Cuba. Sandy is forecast to interact with a series of low pressure features that will drag it north, then north-northeast, then finally back to the northwest (as of this model run).

National Hurricane Center (NHC) guidance has Sandy making an East Coast impact somewhere around a Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm, but here's the rub- this is using the hurricane modeling, and that may not take into account that Sandy will lose its tropical characteristics as it transitions into what we call a hybrid system- a mix of a tropical cyclone and an extratropical system. There are characteristics of both, but they're more unpredictable. Therefore, allow for pretty broad fluctuations in course.

For the moment, expect high surf along the East Coast, and if you're anywhere from Philadelphia through Boston, you'll probably want to prepare for hurricane conditions to make their presence felt late in the weekend. As things clear up in terms of forecast solutions, we'll have more information. This should be a pretty messy storm to forecast, and bear in mind that this is a REALLY BROAD storm... several hundred miles in diameter, and asymmetric. That means the weather will be crappy for hundreds of miles in either direction from the center of circulation.

So, to close, begin your preparations NOW anywhere from Wilmington, DE/ Philadelphia, PA all the way up through the Maine coast... consider last year your dress rehearsal for this.

If you need to get a hold of me with questions, find me on Twitter at @tmi3rd. I'm going to spend the rest of the evening practicing my coughing. tmi4th occasionally brings home colds from daycare, and this one's a whopper.


digg this
posted by Open Blogger at 11:35 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
CharlieBrown'sDildo: " (but only one 'c')[i]Posted by: hogmartin at Sept ..."

No One of Consequence: "Okay, here is where I display midwestern ignorance ..."

DaveA[/i][/b][/u][/s]: "[i]The price of groceries has just been climbing[/ ..."

bluebell: "artisanal 'ette, I like coconut oil too. I'm a bi ..."

CharlieBrown'sDildo: "CBD has a 6 burner stove.[i]Posted by: Cheribebe a ..."

illiniwek: "Back around 2001, I was doing some vineyard tours ..."

Nevergiveup: "Michael Moores Anti-Trump Fahrenheit 11/9 Falls Fl ..."


mustbequantum: "Okay, here is where I display midwestern ignorance ..."

JTB: "147 .. I should have specified that is for steak. ..."

Surfperch: "Is rest stop food ever good? Posted by: Lizzy at ..."

Ripley: "I tend to think Kav wil be confirmed but can't put ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64