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October 19, 2012

FoxNews: Support For Obama Dips, From +9 to MoE +3

Sorry, I'm kind of tapped. It's going to be crap posts like this from here on out.

It's 46-43. That 46 looks pretty weak, but people keep saying "undecided voters break for the incumbent" and that's really not true.

Still, progress, and in a poll that tends to always be sort of bad for Republicans (despite what you might guess, and despite what liberals still think, because they don't bother checking their guesses).

Obama topped Romney by seven percentage points in Ohio a month ago (49-42 percent).

The president has lost ground among independents (down 10 points from September), women (down eight points) and voters under age 35 (down six points).

Half of Ohio voters are “extremely” interested in the election. Among these most interested voters, Romney is ahead by 10 percentage points (52-42 percent). In addition, by a 12-point margin, Romney supporters (65 percent) are more likely than Obama supporters (53 percent) to say it is “extremely” important their candidate win in November.

Here's something:

[W]hen asked who deserves more credit for Ohio’s unemployment rate being lower than the national average, nearly half of Ohio likely voters -- 45 percent -- say Republican Gov. John Kasich, while 35 percent say the president should get more credit.

One big problem for Romney is that Obama's favorable number is at 55%, while his own is at 48%. I'm starting to buy into the idea that favorability is a strong --maybe the strongest -- indicator of who'll prevail on election day.

On the other hand, via @justkarl, the breakdown of D/R/I is 42/34/20.

No wonder Obama comes out ahead.

Fox also says Romney's up three 48-45, in Florida, a state many are assuming is now in the "Leans Pretty Strongly R" column.


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posted by Ace at 06:20 PM

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