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October 18, 2012

"Binded" by the Whites

or, How Obama's Calliope Crashed to the Ground.

Ignoring all the ridiculous talk of "binders full of women" and "Big Bird", one can find a lot of interesting news out today on who is voting and how they are choosing to do so.

And what does it indicate? That both white voters and GOP voters are revved up like a deuce and voting for Romney because, mama, that's where the fun is.

Manfred Mann Earth Band* references aside (for now), I just want to share a few things I've seen today that herald a coming Romney/Ryan Tsunami.

First, check out this passage that somehow got past the gatekeepers at the Washington Post today:

But even if Romney sustains a huge loss on the Latino vote, he could very well offset that (and much more) by out-performing his Republican predecessors when it comes to white voters, which are still about seven times as much of the electorate as Latinos. Indeed, itís not unreasonable to think that Romney could win 60 percent or more of white voters this year.

The most recent national polls from four pollsters ó Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center ó all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. Thatís something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reaganís landslide 1984 reelection win.

(Emphasis added).

Now we can bicker on the Latino vote. I've seen numbers all over the place, including some that show Obama underperforming his 2008 percentages significantly.

But this is the first time I've seen a published compilation of numbers that indicate a Reaganesque sweep of white voters by Romney. It really is looking a lot like 1980/1984 out there.

Why is this important? Because I think this helps explain the findings of the recent Gallup Polls as well, especially with regard to the Gender Gap favoring Romney. Democratic strategists were quick to dismiss Gallup's finding of a 6 point lead (edit: make that 7 point lead now!) for Romney by claiming that there was no way Romney and Obama were running even among women, as the Gallup survey showed in its internals.

Except, there is a way that could happen. And that's if Romney is significantly outperforming his metrics elsewhere. And, as the Washington Post was kind enough to tell us today, he appears to be doing so.

At this point, I almost hate to remind the Washington Post that Reagan won 49 states in 1984 (save Walter Mondale's Minnesota). Perhaps that explains why Jill Biden is on her way to Duluth right now. Oh, who am I kidding? I love to remind the Washington Post that Reagan won 49 states in 1984.

But, wait, there's more! Check out this nugget of caramel goodness I saw at NRO today:

Charles, a Campaign Spot reader in Tennessee, took a look at the totals after the first day of early voting in his state:

All Obama Counties in Tennessee

2008: 36,144

2012: 25,317

Change: -30%

All McCain Counties in Tennessee (except Henry which has not reported 2012EV totals):

2008: 71,846

2012: 94,588

Change: +31.7%

Sure, it's red state Tennessee. Who cares? Well, I can't take more without taking the whole thing, but the same trend is playing out in North Carolina too. You should really click the link to check out the signs of GOP voter enthusiasm and Democrat despair that are playing out in the early numbers.

Who knew that when some silicone sister with a manager mister said she'd "turn you on sonny to something strong" she was referring to the 2012 Romney/Ryan ticket?

We do now. Consider this your feel good 70's Mystery Click of the Day:

And yes, I preemptively denounce myself for this post. Just to be, you know, safe.

*Yes, I know Springsteen wrote and recorded this song originally. But, like almost all things Springsteen, it sucks. Manfred Mann's Earth Band is THE definitive version.)

I can be found on Twitter as @jackmcoldcuts if you are so inclined.

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posted by Jack M. at 01:37 PM

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