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October 17, 2012

Hey, How About Another Poll Analysis Post?

Bit of an update to the earlier post -- Obama might be cutting losses in Colorado and Virginia as well.

One thing I wanted to note was Romney's strengthening position in Ohio. I didn't want to get my hopes up when I read this, from Mark Halperin, via Hot Air:

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+…

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

Okay. That's just one report, so I didn't want to go kookoobananas on it. Ohio worries me.

But now Peter Hamby reports (first link, above):

The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)

Buzz? It does seem likely that Democrats are providing this buzz; and it's possible we still only have the one source, the one senior Democrat, leaking to both men. And this may be based on a single Obama internal poll.

Still.

So: I'm still worried about Ohio, and I have long thought it simply is a Democratic state now, and still want Romney to make a strong play for Wisconsin and Michigan -- I don't want so many eggs in this Ohio basket -- but it does seem like maybe Ohio is trending in our favor.



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posted by Ace at 05:48 PM

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