Meet the New Poll Truthers, Not The Same As The Old Poll Truthers

Because those who questioned methodology, partisan split, and turnout assumptions when polls showed Obama ahead were crazy Denialists in a war with Media-Approved Narrative Reality.

But now that the polls are turning against Obama, the Obama campaign itself is questioning party ID and such.

Well, Team Obama is apparently freaked out by this poll and the traction it’s getting because I just got a long memo from them, written by Joel Benenson, president of the Benenson Strategy Group, questioning the accuracy of Gallup’s likely voter sample:

The latest Gallup/ USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.

This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.

Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.

...

We believe the problem with Gallup’s outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.

In Gallup’s current survey, Obama leads women by 53-44 among registered voters in the Battleground States, which is closely aligned with results from other pollsters.

It is only when the likely voter screen is applied that their results become so out of step.

The Obama Poll Truther claims the registered voter poll is much closer to "reality" (for some ranges of reality).

As I pointed out in the last post, the USAToday article about the poll addressed this:

Gallup notes that its likely voter model predicted a slightly more Democratic outcome than the actual results in the last two presidential elections, in 2008 and 2004. In both, the likely voter model more accurately predicted the final outcome than the registered-voter sample.

But What If Obama's Firewall Is Actually On Fire? Media rushes in to repair Obama's firewall.

posted by Ace at 05:16 PM

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