ę Gallup/USAToday Poll: Romney Stronger In Swing States Than National Polling Suggests | Main | Pat Caddell: NYT Engaging In Near-Complete Suppression of Libya Story To Shill For Loser President Ľ
October 15, 2012

Meet the New Poll Truthers, Not The Same As The Old Poll Truthers

Because those who questioned methodology, partisan split, and turnout assumptions when polls showed Obama ahead were crazy Denialists in a war with Media-Approved Narrative Reality.

But now that the polls are turning against Obama, the Obama campaign itself is questioning party ID and such.

Well, Team Obama is apparently freaked out by this poll and the traction itís getting because I just got a long memo from them, written by Joel Benenson, president of the Benenson Strategy Group, questioning the accuracy of Gallupís likely voter sample:

The latest Gallup/ USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.

This result underscores deep flaws in Gallupís likely voter screen.

Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallupís likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallupís survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.

...

We believe the problem with Gallupís outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.

In Gallupís current survey, Obama leads women by 53-44 among registered voters in the Battleground States, which is closely aligned with results from other pollsters.

It is only when the likely voter screen is applied that their results become so out of step.

The Obama Poll Truther claims the registered voter poll is much closer to "reality" (for some ranges of reality).

As I pointed out in the last post, the USAToday article about the poll addressed this:

Gallup notes that its likely voter model predicted a slightly more Democratic outcome than the actual results in the last two presidential elections, in 2008 and 2004. In both, the likely voter model more accurately predicted the final outcome than the registered-voter sample.

But What If Obama's Firewall Is Actually On Fire? Media rushes in to repair Obama's firewall.


digg this
posted by Ace at 05:16 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
5/8 Mex: "Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at December 16, 2017 ..."

JQ: "KT, saw your reply re: turnips/ greens-- thanks so ..."

Bear with Assymetrical Balls: "A good future movie thread might be movies that we ..."

blake: "Sigh. How about a complementary compliment? ..."

The Inexplicable Dr. Julius Strangepork: "Hi, is anyone still here? I used to raise dwarf r ..."

Stringer Davis [/i]]/b]: "But Hitchcock DID make a Titanic movie. He did the ..."

Northernlurker : "I thought In Cold Blood was a very good movie. ..."

blake: "Posted by: KT at December 16, 2017 08:54 PM (BVQ+1 ..."

Bertram Cabot, Jr.: " [i]Emperor of the North .. anyone ? Posted by: ..."

Hands: ""The Right Stuff" is very good. It can't be easy t ..."

troyriser: "I've seen 'The Passion of Joan of Arc' twice now. ..."

Harvey Weinstein: "Ain't nothing to phrenology neither. Posted b ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64