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October 15, 2012

Gallup/USAToday Poll: Romney Stronger In Swing States Than National Polling Suggests

For a while, the Narrative being pushed by Team Obama is that Obama may be in a little trouble per the national polls, but he enjoys a stronger position in the actual swing states that will determine this election.

The Gallup/USAToday poll suggests that's not true.

Romney's surge is courtesy of... the wimmens, or, as the DNC thinks of them, "Vagina-Based Life Forms."

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

...

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters, the changed views of Romney could be "a precursor to movement" to the Republican candidate, she says. "It opens them up to take a second look, and that's the danger for Obama."

I heard Rush say something that sounded hopeful -- that while the polls in the Wisconsin recall suggested a tight race, the actual outcome was a "landslide" against recall.

I looked that up hoping it was true -- But it's not really true. Although some polls, like PPP, claimed a tight race, the RCP average put the margin at 6.7 points, in favor of Walker; the actual outcome was 6.8 points, in favor of Walker.

It seems like those who had no opinion -- around 3% -- split more or less evenly for Walker and Barrett at the end. Each man gained about 1.5% support. (Walker actually gained 1.6%.)

One point to note, in Rush's favor: That final RCP tally is skewed a bit by a WeAskAmerica poll, showing a +12 lead for Walker. Most people discounted this result, so people actually thought of the election as +4 or +5 for Walker-- still winnable for Barrett.

But it wasn't, and Walker's actual victory margin exceeded that.

Update: Actually, the more I look into this the more it seems Rush was righter than he was wrong. RCP included that WeAskAmerica poll, but no one else included it in their mental figuring of the race. Politco, for example, ran this late-stage headline:

Wisconsin recall: Nail-biting finish

It noted that virtually all polls had Walker ahead -- but labeled him "only a marginal favorite."

So it does seem that that the Narrative was that this was a nail-biter, and Walker was only barely favored to win.

And he won pretty big.


In the Gallup/USAToday article, Gallup itself notes that its Likely Voter model has tended to understate Republican strength and overstate Democratic strength. Even with the LV screen, there are still too many Democrats in the polls.

By the way, thanks to @drewmtips for the USAToday poll. Drew's been an Eeyore, but today he says:

Starting to look 1980ish. It's not going to be a Reaganesque landslide but a weak incumbent who looked ok until mid-October then...not

I don't think it will be a landslide but Obama's numbers are collapsing in key spots. http://ow.ly/euG4v

Just to repeat..I do NOT think Mitt will win in a landslide. Just noting the similarity to how Carter seemed to hang in and then fell apart.

Obama seems to be crashing not nationally but in the states he needs to win.

Optimism from Drew? Well well well. Maybe we are ahead.


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posted by Ace at 04:26 PM

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