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October 08, 2012
Romney's Debate Performance Edges Him Within Striking Distance of Obama in MichiganStill behind -- but a ten point lead has become a three-point edge. Margin of error. Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Susquehanna Poll has Romney within two in Pennsylvania, post-debate. In a poll conducted just after the first presidential debate, from Oct. 4 to 6, 47 percent of respondents said they support Obama; 45 percent support Romney. 3 percent support Libertarian Gary Johnson. Via @justkarl, liberals everywhere are suddenly very interested in partisan splits, after mocking conservatives for raising flags over D+8, D+9, D+10 polls. In an earlier post, I noted @chucktodd tweeting the partisan splits in the Pew poll, when he previously insisted that You Takes the Partisan Splits As You'se Finds 'Em And You Don't Question Them. The Washington Post's Chris Cilizza also is a sudden believer that partisan splits deserve scrutiny. Here's Cilizza a couple of weeks ago: After the release of any — and every — swing state or national poll these days, the Fix Twitter feed and email inbox immediately fill up with messages that are some variation on this: “Party ID skewed! D+8!” Um, no, but not D+8, 9, 10 or 12, either. ... Got that? Just because the voter turnout was such-and-such two, four, or eight years ago, does not mean pollsters should ponder whether the partisan ID found in polls mirrors any previous election. We can't look to the past to determine tomorrow's electorate, after all. The Washington Post's Chris Cilizza says so, so you should believe him. Which makes me wonder why today, of all days, he immediately knocks down the Pew survey by comparing it to partisan splits in recent elections: That pesky party ID question: The Pew sample for this poll was 36 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. That’s a major shift from the organization’s September poll which was 29 percent Republican, 39 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. In the 2010 election, the electorate was 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent, according to exit polling. In 2008, 39 percent of the electorate identified as Democrats while 32 percent said they were Republicans and 29 percent said they were independents. Ah! So suddenly it is important to compare a poll's partisan split to likely, plausible turnout figures, based on turnout from past elections! But two weeks ago you told me we just goshdarn couldn't predict what the electorate would look like, so we shouldn't examine such things! To steal a line from Barack Obama: Today I met an energetic young fellow named Chris Cilizza. But this couldn't be the real Chris Cilizza, because he reversed all of the positions he's been announcing for the past year! | Recent Comments
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Amazing Tales of the Sea Cafe
Polls and Liberal Gasbags Agree: The Future is MAGA Cincinnati "Brawl" -- The Media Is Now Calling the Street Lynching of a Defenseless Man by a Group of Violent Thugs a "Brawl" -- Goes Viral, and Forces the Leftwing City Government to Pretend to Care About Anti-White Violence Ghislaine Maxwell: I Will Testify Before Congress But Only If I'm Granted Immunity DOJ Shuts Down Four "Dark Web" Websites Hosting "Millions of Files" of Vile Child Exploitation Content Delusional Mentally-Ill Suspect Immediately ID'd as "Possibly White" by CNN's Erin Burnett Kills Four Over Delusional CTE Self-Diagnosis EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin Moves to End Obama-Era "Finding" That Carbon Dioxide Causes "Endangerment" to Humans, Which Would Be the "Largest Regulatory Action in the History of America" The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Mid-Morning Art Thread The Morning Report — 7/29/25 Search
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