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October 08, 2012

PEW POLL PUTS ROMNEY UP FOUR OVER OBAMA
Battleground Poll: Romney Up Sixteen Points With Independents;
Among Those Most Likely to Vote, Leads 52-46 In Swing States

Breaking: Pew Poll has Romney ahead 49-45.

That's a twelve point net shift from three weeks ago, when it was Obama 51 Romney 43.

More: via @jaketapper, Obama had enjoyed a +18 advantage with women. Now: Tied.

Via @fixaaron,

Romney has also closed the gap on Medicare in this Pew poll: Trails 46-43 after trailing 51-38 last month.

Pew shows same numbers on debate as Gallup: 72% say Romney won, 20% say Obama.


In the Battleground poll, Romney has a sixteen point lead among independents.

Sixteen!

Among a swing group that makes up around 30% of the population.

And yet they have Obama ahead 49-48...?

Despite lower Democratic enthusiasm?

How many Democrats, exactly, are they expecting to show up on November 6th?

One baziollion or like two bazillion?

Now: That enthusiasm gap shows up big-time when you look at those "extremely likely to vote." Via Politico:

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.

Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.

Note the massive directionality: Three weeks ago, it was 50-47, advantage Obama; now it's 52-46, advantage Romney.

That is a swing of nine net points (+3 to -6, or -3 to +6-- works either way. Math is a wonderful thing!)

Heh: All of a sudden @chucktodd is a big fan of checking partisan splits. In the Pew Poll, it's R+1 (registered voters) and R+3 (likely voters).

After a season of mocking the right for questioning absurd splits (D+9, etc.), now he's Mr. Let's Check The Splits.






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