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October 03, 2012

Romney Up Four In Toss-Up States in Politico Battleground Poll

Before getting to that, Obama seems to lead by 2 nationally, or about that much. Rasmussen has it Obama 49-47; Gallup has it Obama 49-45 (but they're still polling registered voters).

Politico's Battleground poll also has Obama up by a couple, nationally.

I don't really care about state-by-state polling or even the block of swing states for a simple reason: the state tallies tend to be highly, highly correlated to the national vote.

That said, given that the media enjoyed freaking us the f*** out by playing up Obama's lead in swing states, a little payback is order, via Breitbart's Mike Flynn.

Each candidate leads in states considered "safe" for their party. In safe GOP states, Romney leads by 8. In safe Democrat states, Obama leads by a massive 22 points. But, in the more numerous and more important "toss up" states, Romney leads by 4, hitting the critical 50% threshold.

In the slightly different category of "battleground" states identified by Politico, Romney leads by 2, 49-47. Romney's lead over Obama is powered primarily by his edge with independents. Romney leads Obama by 4 among the important swing voters. By 11 points, these voters think Romney would do better on the economy than Obama, 51-40.



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posted by Ace at 01:57 PM

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