Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Study: Five Million People Were Killed By Global Warming in 2010 | Main | Suspect In Benghazi Attack Was Freed From Egyptian Prison After Obama Demanded Mubarak Vacate His Throne Immediately;
Administration Ignored Repeated Attacks in Benghazi, and Repeated Warnings To Consulate Security
October 02, 2012

Time: Are We Already In A Recession?

I would prefer the term "downturn" because I think we're still in the same recession -- or depression -- that started in 2008. In this depressionary economy, we will have cycles of growth and contraction, but all zeroed around the reduced, depressionary level of the New Normal.

As I keep saying, this happened in the Great Depression too. An economy never remains perfectly static-- it grows some, it contracts some. But in a Depression, its equilibrium is set several big steps below its optimum level.

Economists have mistaken this natural, inevitable "growth along the bottom" for a recovery.

That said, it could very well be that we're now in the middle of a recession within our depressionary economy.

[I]ts more than a little frightening that were seeing a spate of depressing numbers that could signal a recession on the horizon or that one is already here. On Thursday the Commerce Department revised down its estimate of second-quarter GDP growth to 1.3% from an already sluggish 1.7%. If that werent bad enough, the Department also reported that orders of durable goods long-lasting pieces of equipment like airplanes or heavy machinery fell 13.2% in August. And Friday, the Project Management Institute was out with a survey which showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region was contracting, surprising many analysts. While its unwise to read too much into any one of these data, the three in succession are unsettling.

These data also give ammo to bearish commentators who have long been predicting a recession in either late 2012 or early 2013. John Hussman, president of Hussman Economectrics Advisors, is one of those bears and he has recently reiterated that prediction. In his most recent note Hussman wrote:

We continue to infer that the economy has already entered a recession something that will probably take several more months to be broadly recognized. Were seeing fresh lows on the most leading economic component that we infer using unobserved components methods . . . matching weakness that emerged in late 2000 and late 2007. On a slightly positive note, we dont yet see the near free-fall in these measures that occurred later in 2001 and 2008 as economic weakness rapidly gained momentum.

(MORE: Home Sales, Prices Rise: Is Housing Finally Ready to Lead a Recovery?)

And Hussman isnt the only one. The Economic Cycle Research Institute which has good track record calling recessions has also been predicting a downturn. Now the ECRI is saying that the U.S. is in recession as we speak...

digg this
posted by Ace at 02:44 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Soothsayer: " How are the Democrats going to run on "bidenomic ..."

JackStraw: ">> Burgum looks like he could be on a coin or bill ..."

antisocial justice beatnik: "[i]306 But there's the question. If he's using enc ..."

Oldcat: " So he yelled "Sic semper ty-OWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!"? ..."

LizLem: "Now that Dracula is safely not the VP, I like him ..."

Don Black: ">Burgum looks like he could be on a coin or bill ..."

Anonosaurus Wrecks, Covfefe Today, Covfefe Tomorrow, Covfefe Forever![/s] [/b] [/u]: "I predict the schools across America take down pic ..."

Braenyard: "CSPAN has the convention and also speeches from ea ..."

Darrell Harris: "367 Now NBC reporting Schumer had "blunt" conversa ..."

neverenoughcaffeine: "I wanted Vance or Burgum. PDT made the correct cal ..."

Soothsayer: " Sounds like they finally scared the shit outta " ..."

Piper: "Not a police chase but a cat chase. https://www ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64