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October 01, 2012

CNN Poll: Obama and Romney Are Now Within Margin Of Error, But Obama Leads, 50-47*
* Assuming Obama Repeats 2008 Turnout

Among Likely Voters, using CNN's super-duper likely voter screen, it's 50-47.

Among Registered Voters -- no screen -- it's 50... 46?

That's it? The likely voter screen subtracted a point from Romney? Correction: It added a single point to Romney. Math. How does that work?

But is Obama really going to enjoy another 2008, with a +8 turnout advantage?

Oh: The WaPo/ABCNews had it close nationally, but then claimed Obama enjoyed an eleven point lead in just the swing states.

Problem? Only 161 swing state voters were polled. That's a tiny sample -- with a margin of error of + or - eight points.

They're not defending their decision to push that, but it's nonsense.

They know the bigger sample is the better sample, and they know that actual state voting closely mirrors national voting.


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posted by Ace at 04:47 PM

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