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September 17, 2012

DaTechGuy: You Know, Rasmussen's Polling On Partisan Sentiment Has Been Pretty Accurate As Far As Forecasting Vote Share...

I've had this open all day.

You have to read his post to see the numbers. But the basic pattern is that high Republican affiliation -- even a tie, or even being slightly behind the Democrats -- results in Republican wins.

When it's close, the Democrats tend to lose.


What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing Iíve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

As Judge Rheinhold says in Fast Times, "Read it. Learn it. Live it."


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posted by Ace at 07:12 PM

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