Current partisan ID of American voters: R+4??

Now, this is Rasmussen, and I am wary to go with one firm's findings alone, but if this is even close to accurate, November could very well be a bloodbath.

After polling 15,000 voters, Scott Rasmussen found the largest spread for the Republicans in self-ID in the history of his polling (going back to 2002), with a higher share of the overall population (37.6%) than in 2004 (37.3%), when November turnout was evenly split.

Considering Obama won with Democrats holding nearly a 7-point edge in exit polling on Election Day 2008, a shift rightwards of 4-5 points (D+2 to D+3) would be tough.

R+ anything, with his current standing amongst independents, would be catastrophic. It would also imply 90% of all polling released has been way off the mark, almost hiding a Romney win this whole time. I don't agree with most conservatives that there is such a vast polling conspiracy in part because the diversity of firms available and active now makes it harder for liberal ones to really control the narrative (see PPP's numbers out of Michigan versus...everybody else). Still...

posted by CAC at 03:51 PM

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